Today, on December 1st, 2023, the price of Bitcoin has reached its new annual high for 2023.
Until yesterday, the record had been recorded around $38,400, and it had been touched or approached several times in the last 30 days.
Today, however, it has jumped to over $38,800, with the possibility of possibly rising above $39,000.
Annual records and the price of Bitcoin today
Only in two other years were higher annual records recorded than this, and both were due to the great bull run of 2021.
In fact, until 2020 included, the price of Bitcoin had never exceeded $30,000. In fact, excluding the last two months of 2020, when the last major bull run had already begun, it had never even risen above $20,000.
So from 2009 to 2019 it had never risen above $20,000.
In 2020, it only rose at the end of the year, when the last major bull run had already begun, but without exceeding $30,000.
The only two years in which the annual record exceeded that of the current year were 2021, when it reached an all-time high of about $69,000, and 2022, when it started the year at around $42,000 following the burst of the previous year’s major speculative bubble, and briefly rose to $48,000 in March.
Since the implosion of the Terra/Luna crypto ecosystem in May 2022, the price of Bitcoin has dropped below $40,000 and has not yet returned above this level.
However, today’s annual record may not be the last of 2023, as several analysts argue that Bitcoin could have the strength to rise above $40,000 by the end of the year.
Will today’s Bitcoin price trigger the start of a new bull run?
But the idea that is being discussed the most is the possible start of a new major bull run.
Until today, all three major bull runs have occurred the year following the three halvings. However, there was no halving in 2023, nor in 2022. The next one will happen in a few months, around April 2024.
However, the price trend of Bitcoin at the end of 2023 does not resemble at all the trends of the three previous pre-halving years (2011, 2015, and 2019). In particular, it significantly differs from the trend at the end of 2019.
Instead, it closely resembles the trend of late 2016, which was the year of the second halving.
The fact is that in 2017 there was the second major bull run, so if the similarities with 2016 continue next year, we might even expect a new major bull run in the same year as the halving, and not the following one.
Although this is just one possible hypothesis among many, and it is not possible to accurately determine how likely it is to occur, there is, however, a particular market behavior to consider that could justify it.
The advance of markets
Financial markets tend to price in advance the consequences of known events.
In this case it is well-known that in April 2024 there will be the fourth halving of Bitcoin, but the same thing could have been said, for example, in 2020.
Despite everyone knowing that the third halving would take place in May 2020, the markets did not price in the consequences before it happened. However, it must be said that at the time, not many believed that the effect of the third halving on the price of Bitcoin could be similar to that of the previous two halvings.
This time, however, there seem to be many more people who think that even the fourth halving could have similar effects, so it is possible that financial markets are already starting to price in the possible consequences on the price of Bitcoin of the April halving.
So it is not at all absurd to imagine that the next big bull run could happen a year earlier than the historical series, even though often when a Bitcoin price trend is widely expected, it may be disappointed.
The shock of the offer
Meanwhile, what is fueling the recent rise in the price of Bitcoin is a sort of supply shock.
In fact, it appears that since November 17th, over 37,000 BTC (approximately 1.4 billion dollars) have been withdrawn from exchanges.
In addition, the vast majority of existing BTC is reported to be stagnant for more than a year, or even more than two years.
It is basically a kind of supply shock in the market, which causes the price to rise as the demand does not appear to be decreasing.
Note that trading volumes in November were not supported at all, so there are no classic compulsive purchases by retail due to FOMO.
On the contrary, it seems that the increase in the price of Bitcoin in recent months is not due to a significant increase in demand, but rather to a reduction in supply.
The year 2024
The key to understanding what is really happening will probably be January 2024.
In fact, if the parallelism with 2016 were to continue, in January the price should aim for historical highs, that is, at least surpass $50,000, if not $60,000. If this does not happen, then it will be very difficult to talk about the beginning of a new major bull run.
In order for a true major bull run like the one in 2021 or 2017 to occur, the price of BTC needs to first return to its all-time highs and then break them upwards.
Moreover, if the markets are already pricing in the halving, it is also possible that, once it happens, there will be a strong correction. However, it should be remembered that even at the beginning of 2017, after reaching new all-time highs, there was a strong correction. However, it only took a couple of months for the bull run to resume.
Therefore, what will happen in December 2023 is not so important, unless there are major upheavals, but how the trend will continue in the first month of next year.
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