A research report by Deutsche Bank analysts has highlighted how the sentiment in the cryptocurrency market is bearish at the moment, pushing their Bitcoin price forecast below $20,000 within a year.
The strongly negative forecast contrasts with those of other financial services companies, which are optimistic about the performance that BTC will record in this 2024, driven by the recent approval of the spot ETF in the USA and the upcoming halving in April.
Let’s see all the details below.
Summary
Deutsche Bank’s forecast: many respondents expect a Bitcoin price below $20,000 by January 2025
Deutsche Bank, a leading bank in Germany and present in about 60 countries worldwide, recently conducted a survey to gauge the sentiment of the retail crypto market, trying to understand what the price forecast for Bitcoin will be for this 2024.
The research survey, as reported by Bloomberg, involved 2,000 people residing in the United States, United Kingdom, and Eurozone and focused exclusively on the price and volatility factors of the cryptocurrency.
The result is largely negative: over a third of the interviewed sample believes that Bitcoin will reach a price below $20,000 within a year, highlighting fear and uncertainty due to the historical cyclical nature of the cryptocurrency’s price movement.
Usually, in fact, every 4 years, in conjunction with the halving of the protocol, BTC experiences significant bullish rallies that increase its market capitalization each time.
According to the interviewees from Deutsche Bank, however, history will not repeat itself this time and the forecasts give a completely opposite result with Bitcoin, which according to them will lose over 50% of its value by January 2025.
To tell the truth, within the survey sample there is also a 15% who expects a BTC price between $40,000 and $75,000 by the end of the year, while a small minority dreams of an even higher price.
By taking a look at the forecasts made by other financial service institutions, we can highlight a sentiment that is completely opposite to the one revealed by Deutsche Bank’s survey on the future of Bitcoin.
The investment fund Ark Invest, led by the famous Cathie Wood, recently stated that it sees a very likely rise in crypto up to 1.5 million dollars in a few years.
The financial research center Fundstrat is not as optimistic as Ark but at the same time believes that BTC is heading towards $150,000 and could even reach half a million dollars within five years.
The London-based bank Standard Chartered is also bullish on Bitcoin: its forecasts support an increase in the asset up to 200,000 USD by next year.
Finally VanEck, one of the Fund Managers that has pushed the most for the approval of the first spot ETF in the USA, claims that the crypto will have a very positive year and could explode upwards if Donald Trump is elected president during the presidential elections in November.
Regarding spot ETFs, Deutsche Bank analysts Marion Laboure and Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace explained in the report that these investment vehicles will expand the institutionalization of bitcoin, despite the fact that currently most of the flows come from retail clients.
Meanwhile, the adoption of cryptocurrencies continues to grow, reaching record levels: an analysis by Crypto.com has highlighted how the owners of digital coin wallets worldwide have grown by 34% in 2023, reaching a figure of 580 million units.
Price analysis and forecasts for BTC
While Deutsche Bank’s forecasts for Bitcoin in 2024 are mostly bearish, technical price analysis does not seem to indicate an alarming situation yet.
Since January 2023, BTC has started an unprecedented upward trend, recording a growth of about 200%, supported by the progress made by the US market in approving the country’s spot ETF, which would lead to an increase in investment flows, at least according to popular investor belief.
The launch event of these investment tools, however, has turned out to be, at least for now, a so-called “sell the news” with the currency chart forming an ugly spike from the bearish push during that week.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is compressed in a trading range ranging from 41,000 to 43,000 USD, waiting for one of the two extremes to be broken, with current prices bouncing above the 50-period exponential moving average on the daily time frame over the weekend.
By analyzing the situation over a longer time horizon, we notice that the picture is still clearly bullish, with the graphical pattern still potentially bullish and the supertrend indicator endorsing a positive momentum.
The main danger for Bitcoin today is that it slips below $40,000 and creates conditions for a continuation of the market correction.
As highlighted also by the predictions of the well-known founder of BitMex Arthur Hayes, BTC could experience a bearish spring, and then recover during the summer.
The April halving, which will halve the rewards for miners on the network, could be the catalyst event that will push prices to reach new local highs above $50,000.
Taking a look at the situation of perpetual markets, we see how the current levels of liquidations give us a hint on the price zones to keep more under control this week.
According to Coinglass data, the bull run could come to a halt around the 41,400 USD area, where several liquidations are concentrated.
On the opposite side, the threshold of 43,000 USD represents the biggest obstacle to overcome in the short term, with a lot of bear liquidity positioned at that level.
The following chart only considers the situation for the Okx exchange, but the situation is similar in other markets such as Bybit, Bitmex, Bitget, and Binance.
