The famous crypto investor Scott Melker, also known by the nickname “The Wolf of All Street”, explained in a recent interview that Bitcoin’s halving will lead to a strong appreciation of the currency, with dizzying forecasts.
In particular, based on past halvings, Melker has observed that the value of Bitcoin could reach $240,000 at the end of the next bullish cycle.
The projection has been made taking into account the percentage growth recorded by the crypto asset from its peak in 2017 to that of 2021.
If history were to repeat itself, we could see BTC reaching 240,000 USD, however, typically the growth rate of the currency tends to decrease after each halving.
Let’s see everything in detail below.
Summary
Fourth halving coming up: the quadrennial event that halves block rewards for miners
The Bitcoin halving is an event encoded by the Bitcoin PoW protocol, established since its inception in 2008, in which the rate of new cryptocurrency issuance is halved every 210,000 blocks (approximately every 4 years) by the decentralized network.
The goal of this particular practice is to decrease the number of new coins entering circulation in the network, thus reducing the supply on the market.
Consider that currently the Bitcoin protocol rewards miners, that is, those subjects who contribute to the resilience of the network by offering computing power (hashrate), with exactly 6.25 BTC.
Originally, the number of coins issued by the network was 50 BTC per block, which was reduced to 25 BTC in 2012, 12.5 BTC in 2016, and finally to 6.25 BTC in 2020.
At the next halving, which will occur approximately on April 18, 2024, the “block reward” that will be distributed to miners will be 3.125 BTC.
In total, after the halving in April, the cryptographic protocol plans to host another 60 halving events, which will end in the year 2140: from that moment on, miners will only earn from transaction fees and not from block rewards.
At first glance, simply reading the halving as the event that halves miners’ rewards, one might think that they are disadvantaged in financial terms, receiving fewer coins over time.
However, historically every halving has been accompanied by a strong rise in the price of Bitcoin that has offset any network halving, providing a solid earning base for PoW network operators.
Obviously, the mining business is much more complex than it seems and a multitude of variables such as electricity cost, hardware cost, and network difficulty make it difficult to make predictions about future earnings rate.
Usually, in conjunction with the halving, the impact of the halving is felt more, while after about 150 days, the effects on the price of Bitcoin bring profitability back to acceptable levels.
As we can see in the following graph, “indexed growth” tends to flatten every 4 years, while the number of recorded transaction fees is expected to slightly increase in each epoch.
By doing so, the Bitcoin protocol behaves like a perfect machine that balances the supply reduction mechanism, always ensuring a certain degree of economic security to those who contribute with their hashrate.
Ultimately, the halving acts as a sort of leveling within the mining industry, as some miners stop operating due to decreased returns, making it easier for new miners to enter.
Scott Melker and the Bitcoin forecast at $240,000 after the fourth halving
Scott Melker, famous crypto investor known as “The Wolf of All Streets”, in a recent interview for The Street revealed his predictions for the price of Bitcoin ahead of the upcoming April halving.
Based on what has been observed in previous years, Melker with a positive sentiment has hypothesized a growth percentage similar to that of the last bullish cycle in which the price of the cryptocurrency went from $20,000 in December 2017 to $69,000 in November 2021, printing a +250% approximately on the chart against the US dollar.
In a similar perspective, Bitcoin would be worth 240,000 USD, bringing joy to cryptocurrency holders and fueling miners’ profits.
These are the words of Scott Melker referring to the parallelism with the 2020 halving and the subsequent price increase:
 “It goes from a maximum of $20,000 to a maximum of $69,000, with an appreciation of 250.86%. If we also take the next 250% and bring it from that maximum of $69,000 (bitcoin price of all time) to the next cycle, we are looking at bitcoin around $240,000.”
Obviously, it is not guaranteed that Bitcoin will grow so much, and in anticipation, it should tend to reduce its bullish expansion year after year.
The growth of Bitcoin in terms of marketcap is, in fact, less and less pronounced halving after halving.
Anyway, Melker’s predictions are not completely unfounded and since the asset is completely unpredictable, we could expect a similar rise to that of previous years.
In addition, the current complex macroeconomic context, and the recent approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, offer a changed overall framework compared to the past that could surprise crypto investors, both positively and negatively.
As Melker rightly observes:
“I know it may seem like hyperbole to talk about bitcoin worth $170,000 or $220,000 or even, one day, $1 million. But if it ain’t broke, don’t try to fix it. This cycle has worked in the past and until I see it not working in the future, I bet we will see Bitcoin over $200,000.”
Speaking of ambitious predictions, Anthony Scaramucci, founder of Skybridge Capital, is also bullish on the price of Bitcoin post-halving. He believes that the currency will reach $170,000 by mid or end of 2025.
Standard Chartered had instead predicted an appreciation up to 200,000 USD within the next year at the beginning of this month.
