The price of Bitcoin today in USD is like in December 2021

Yesterday, the price of Bitcoin returned to 50,000 USD, and today it seems to be able to hold it (for now). 

This was a figure that had not been seen since December 2021, which was the month following the all-time high of 69,000 USD.

Now it is only 27% away from the absolute record of November 2021, so there are hypotheses circulating that it could even reach new historical highs by 2024. 

The reasons for the rise in the price of Bitcoin in USD today

Yesterday the Chinese markets were closed for the Chinese New Year, and they will also be closed today. 

In fact, when it was night in the USA, after the end of the Super Bowl, after a rise to 48,800 USD, the price had returned below 48,000 USD. 

But as soon as the US markets reopened after the weekend, it jumped first to $49,000, and then with one final push, even above $50,000.

It should also be noted that the overall market capitalization of stablecoins in the last 4 months has increased by $11.4 billion, so yesterday’s jump is just the latest in a series of jumps that have been going on since October 2023. 

In addition, whale wallets with more than 5 million dollars in Bitcoin have accumulated 2.32% of the top 6 stablecoins in just 4 weeks.

On the other hand, it was already known for a few weeks that, despite the price of Bitcoin remaining consistently above $40,000, whales were accumulating. 

So first they accumulated BTC when the price was below 40,000 USD, and lately they are accumulating stablecoins probably by selling BTC at a profit. 

The impact of ETFs

It is now clear that the new ETFs on Bitcoin spot launched on January 11th on the US stock exchanges are having a positive impact thanks to the influx of new capital into the BTC market. 

The hypothesis that has started circulating in recent days, based on data, is that they could bring significant capital inflows already in 2024, and perhaps this is why the buying pressure on Bitcoin is on the rise. 

According to Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy, many people are starting to realize that the demand for BTC could increase tenfold thanks to the new ETFs. 

According to Bitget Research’s chief analyst, Ryan Lee, the fact that the new ETFs allow investment in Bitcoin through channels compliant with all regulations will undoubtedly bring greater attention and increased capital injections into BTC.

Lee also points out that, with the end of the sale of Grayscale’s ETF shares (GBTC), the overall Bitcoin ETF market has started to see daily net inflows and outflows, and this pace is still being maintained. In particular, BlackRock has opened its sales network to sell shares of its Bitcoin ETF.

In addition, the fourth halving is coming soon, and the market seems confident that the price of BTC will reach new highs after the halving of new BTC creation. 

In addition to this, there is the Fed’s interest rate cut, which is expected to come around mid-2024, and a series of projects based on the Bitcoin ecosystem that will further increase its demand. 

Bitget’s analysis on the price of Bitcoin in USD today

Ryan Lee points out that from January 1, 2024 to January 10, the day when the new Bitcoin spot ETFs were approved by the SEC, BTC trading volumes have grown from 16 billion to 50 billion dollars, with a 300% increase. 

After the effect of the new ETFs, there will also be the effect of the halving, and historically Bitcoin halvings have brought BTC prices to new ATHs in the following year. 

The forecast is that the price of BTC could reach its peak after about one year and five months from the halving. In fact, a similar trend has already been observed after the three previous halvings, and it could repeat itself. 

However, at the moment there would be no imminent news that could have a price correlation with Bitcoin, except for the halving, and it is also important to take into consideration the psychological levels of the market, such as the $50,000 mark: these could cause retracements.

Attention Zone

Since Friday, the relative strength index (RSI) of Bitcoin has been in the overbought zone. 

This happens when the daily RSI exceeds 70, and yesterday it even rose above 78 points. 

Although in the past Bitcoin has remained in overbought territory for extended periods of time, at this point a retracement or correction would be in the air. 

However, it must be said that there doesn’t seem to be a real FOMO yet. 

For example, searches for Bitcoin on Google are still lower even than those on January 23rd, when the price dropped below $39,000. 

The Fear&Greed index is already very high (79 out of 100), so there are several signals indicating a possible retracement, although it is not yet certain that it will occur. 

The halving is not actually just around the corner (there are still two months left), and there don’t seem to be any other events on the horizon capable of further driving up the price of Bitcoin, unless ETFs continue to drain BTC from exchanges. 

Actually, only 20,000 BTC have been withdrawn from crypto exchanges so far, and only in the month of February, as in January there were even 10,000 BTC deposited. If this trend continues, there will be room for further increases, otherwise a correction becomes more likely.