Since they were launched on the US markets on January 11th, Bitcoin ETFs have attracted huge amounts of capital, to the point of starting to compete with those on gold.
Physical gold ETFs have been available on US stock exchanges since the early 2000s, and have since grown significantly.
Gold is indeed the commodity whose ETFs have a total AUM greater: almost 127 billion dollars, according to TradingView data.
According to the data from BitcoinTreasuries.net, all the existing Bitcoin ETFs in the world collectively hold approximately 989,000 BTC, which corresponds to an AUM of about 67 billion dollars.
So Bitcoin ETFs have already surpassed half of the AUM of those on gold.
Summary
Gold ETFs: Bitcoin surpasses 50%
The largest gold ETF by AUM is SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), with nearly $57 billion.
Alone it has a value equal to 85% of all Bitcoin ETFs put together.
However, it has been around for twenty years, so it has had plenty of time to attract capital.
It is worth noting that in November 2004, when it was launched on the stock market, its shares were priced at $45, while now they have risen to $200. In just under twenty years, it has appreciated by 350%.
The second for AUM is BlackRock’s gold ETF, iShares Gold Trust (IAU), with 27 billion dollars.
Interestingly, it has an AUM similar to that of the world’s largest ETF on Bitcoin, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).
IAU has been on the market since 2005, and in nineteen years its shares have appreciated by 378%.
However, it is more interesting to analyze recent performances.
Both GLD and IAU have recorded a gain of just over 60% in the last five years, while compared to twelve months ago the gain drops to 12%.
Moreover, the bulk of this gain has been recorded in the last 30 days with a +8% which turns out to be relatively anomalous for this kind of products considered risk-off.
Bitcoin ETFs
As already mentioned, the largest Bitcoin ETF in the world by AUM is GBTC, with over 36 billion dollars.
It should be noted, however, that this is a fund that has been in existence for more than ten years, and that on January 11th it was transformed into an ETF. Since then, the BTC held has dropped from 620,000 to the current 384,000.
In second place is the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF, iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), with 223,000 BTC and an AUM just over $15 billion.
However, it should be noted that IBIT has only been around for just over two months, and at this rate in the coming weeks (or months) it will end up surpassing GBTC.
It should also be noted that since January 11th, over 11 billion dollars of new capital have flowed into the new Bitcoin spot ETFs, averaging more than 5 per month.
If this pace were to continue for much longer, within 12 months Bitcoin ETFs could end up surpassing gold ETFs for Asset Under Management. In reality, this is just a projection based on current growth rates, but there is no reason to believe that this pace will remain unchanged for other months.
However, they have already surpassed those on silver, which until January 2024 were the second in the world for total AUM on the commodity market.
It is enough to say that the largest ETF in the world on physical silver, BlackRock’s iShares Silver Trust (SLV), has an AUM of only 10 billion dollars, which is less than half of GBTC, and even less than BlackRock’s own Bitcoin ETF.
The impact on the price of BTC
Bitcoin spot ETFs effectively remove the BTC they hold as collateral from the spot crypto markets that issue their shares.
According to CryptoQuant data, until January 25th this dynamic had not reduced the number of actual BTC present on crypto exchanges, since ETFs do not buy Bitcoin on exchanges but via OTC.
Starting from January 26th, however, the total number of BTC present on crypto exchanges has started to decrease, so much so that it has decreased by 4% up to today.
During the same period, the price of BTC has increased by 70%, reaching a peak of +85% yesterday.
The fact is that starting from February 26, a real FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) process has been triggered on Bitcoin, which has caused buying pressure to explode, in contrast to a selling pressure that was only slightly decreasing.
However, FOMO is essentially just a feeling, pure and simple emotion, and as such it can come and go very quickly.
However, the indirect drainage of BTC from crypto exchanges by ETFs is unlikely to have ended, so the reduction in selling pressure could persist for a while longer.
It should not be forgotten that the size of the traditional financial markets in which ETFs are traded is enormously larger than that of the crypto markets, so the capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs are still potentially very high.
It should be noted that the price of BTC is determined by the crypto exchanges, not traditional stock exchanges.
