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Is the Bitcoin Bull Run Nearing Its End? Unveiling the Bitcoin’s Current Cycle Phase

In the recent bull run landscape of cryptocurrency, the recent surge to new all-time highs of Bitcoin has captivated the investment community. 

This extraordinary milestone not only showcases Bitcoin’s increasing dominance and acceptance but also marks a pivotal shift in market dynamics and investor behavior. 

As we delve into the intricacies of this financial phenomenon, we aim to explore the underlying factors driving Bitcoin’s unprecedented rally, the changing patterns of wealth distribution among investors, and the strategic implications for those looking to navigate the next phases of the bull run. 

In doing so, we provide insights into the mechanics of the market’s current state and offer foresight into its potential trajectory.

Venturing into the Euphoria Zone: delve into the actual Bitcoin bull run 

This week witnessed Bitcoin surging to unprecedented levels against the USD, breaching the $69.2k mark and soaring past $72.3k. 

This achievement marks it as the fourth instance in its history where Bitcoin has surpassed its previous cycle’s all-time high (ATH).

In today’s discussion, we delve into the transition into the ‘Euphoria Zone’, a phase commonly associated with setting new ATHs. 

We’ll explore how such milestones historically instigate a transformation in investor behavior, particularly affecting the dynamics between long-term holders (LTHs) and speculative traders.

Bitcoin bull run analysis

Notably, another metric that has hit a new ATH is the Bitcoin Realized Cap, which measures the total value stored in BTC on-chain. It has recently achieved a new record of $504B, with a whopping $40B influx of capital since March 1st.

The Realized Cap’s growth rate now stands at $54B per month, a figure reminiscent of the early 2021 surge. This underscores the significant capital inflow into Bitcoin, propelled by the booming demand and success of new US ETF products.

Bitcoin bull run analysis

The Dynamic of Wealth Redistribution

A hallmark of Bitcoin bull markets is the redistribution of wealth from veteran to new investors. Those who have amassed BTC at lower prices in the past often begin to sell off their holdings as new ATHs are reached, facilitating this wealth shift.

This cycle is evident once more, with the share of wealth in ‘Young coins’ (those moved within the last 3 months) surging by 138% since October 2023. This surge represents significant spending by investors who had held onto their coins for at least 3 months previously.

Bitcoin bull run analysis

This wealth transfer pattern is observable across various cycles, examining both Short-Term and Long-Term Holder Supply metrics. We note a decrease of -660k BTC in LTH supply since the November 2023 peak, with 57% of this reduction linked to redemptions from the GBTC ETF.

Meanwhile, STH Supply has seen an uptick of +810k BTC in the same timeframe, comprising:

660k BTC moving away from Long-Term Holders.

150k BTC drawn from Exchange Balances under our surveillance.

This trend mirrors previous Bitcoin cycles closely, indicating a consistent shift in ownership and the equilibrium between market supply, demand, and pricing.

Bitcoin holder supply

As LTHs liquidate their holdings, their sell pressure must be countered by new buying interest. Analysts face the challenge of pinpointing when sell-off pressure might exceed demand. The following chart illustrates two key metrics:

🔵 The percentage decrease in LTH Supply from its peak.

🔴 The percentage increase in STH Supply from its cycle trough.

Historically, at bull market zeniths, LTH supply has diminished by -14% to -25%, highlighting varying degrees of selling pressure each cycle. In contrast, STH Supply typically peaks around the cycle’s climax, rising over 83% from its trough.

Assuming these shifts in supply and demand reflect critical junctures at cycle peaks, it suggests the current market is about 30% through its typical distribution phase.

Current Phase in the Timeline: still in time for the Bitcoin bull run?

Echoing previous sentiments, a simplified analysis of Bitcoin’s Long and Short-Term Holder Supply suggests we’re 30% through the bull run. 

However, as highlighted in earlier reports, it’s supposed that this bull run might culminate sooner than past occurrences as market participants anticipate and react preemptively, placing us at approximately 50% through the cycle.

Bitcoin market value and realised value z-score


As we dissect the currents of Bitcoin’s latest bull run, a few pivotal insights emerge. Here’s a condensed overview to guide our understanding and investment strategies:

Bitcoin’s ascent to new all-time highs above $72.3k marks a significant phase in its market cycle.

The transition into the ‘Euphoria Zone’ signals a shift in investor behavior, with notable changes among long-term holders and speculators.

A new ATH for Bitcoin’s Realized Cap at $504B underscores the massive capital inflow, partly driven by the success of US ETF products.

The trend of wealth redistribution from seasoned to newer investors is highlighted by the 138% increase in ‘Young coins’ since October 2023.

Market dynamics show a decline in LTH supply and an increase in STH Supply, reflecting previous cycles’ patterns of ownership change.

Current analysis suggests we’re about 50% through this bull run, indicating a strategic point for asset diversification in anticipation of the next market phase.

In essence, these developments signal a critical moment for Bitcoin investors to recalibrate their strategies. 

As we navigate through this euphoric phase towards the unknown terrains of market cycles, it’s imperative to stay informed and agile. 

By leveraging these insights, we can better prepare for the unfolding chapters of Bitcoin’s journey, optimizing our approaches to secure advantageous positions in the evolving landscape.

If you want more updates like this and want to use them to make more money, you should visit InvestmentExplorer, CryptoExplorer’s community for crypto enthusiasts. There, Stefan Erben, the Founder of InvestmentExplorer and Co-Founder of KeyLiving shares his knowledge on a daily basis to help crypto investors navigate the market.