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Less than 5000 blocks until the Bitcoin halving: what will be the impact on the price of BTC?

Less than 5000 blocks left until the Bitcoin halving: the canonical quadrennial event in which the miner reward is halved is now just around the corner.

While waiting for the event, BTC has already updated its all-time highs, while the network records growing on-chain data.

Will this time, like in past years, the halving pave the way for a further increase in the cryptocurrency’s prices? BTC at $100,000?

All the details below.

Bitcoin halving is approaching: less than 5000 blocks left and the protocol will halve miner rewards, what will happen to the price? 

The Bitcoin community is in a frenzy for the fourth halving in the history of the cryptographic protocol, which is less than 5000 blocks away from being executed.

This event, originally programmed by Satoshi Nakamoto, is celebrated every 4 years or more precisely every 210,000 blocks.

At the time of writing this article, we are at block 835,195 of the bitcoin blockchain, so there are just 4,805 blocks left until the long-awaited halving.

As usual, the reward for validating a block by a miners will be halved, going from the current 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

halving bitcoin blocks price
Source: Coinwarz

Miners are getting ready to cash in half of what they mine with each block, but they can celebrate a situation that is completely anomalous compared to previous market cycles.

Indeed, to date the price of Bitcoin is already very high if we consider that there are still 34 days or 4,805 blocks until the halving.

In the past years, the price of the cryptocurrency used to experience significant rallies only after the halving had occurred, while in the days leading up to it, the demand push was usually not very important.

Actually, unless there is a significant dump in the next few days, miners will reach the fourth halving in history with the high price of BTC compensating for the halving of the block reward.

Furthermore, in support of those involved in the extraction of digital gold, it must be said that the activity in the Ordinals field is positively contributing to their income by boosting the transaction fees of the network.

Overall we can say that the cost of 1TH/S is higher by about 65% compared to a year ago, with miners currently earning approximately 0.1 dollars for every terahash donated to the network every second.

Source: The Block

Meanwhile, the hash rate of the Bitcoin blockchain continues unabated to grow, with the total amount of computational power of the network orbiting around historical highs at 600 EH/s.

Halving and impact on the price of BTC: will history repeat itself as in previous cycles?

As we approach the Bitcoin halving with just over 4,800 blocks left to go, investors are wondering if the price of the cryptocurrency will behave as it has in the past by experiencing significant growth after the halving occurs.

As already mentioned, this time BTC has already updated its historical highs BEFORE the halving, breaking a spell that saw the breaking of the highest prices only a few months after the event in question.

This situation, triggered by the arrival of ETF spot on Wall Street which brought a strong wave of fresh demand to the market, could completely disrupt the historical price action of the crypto asset, which we were all used to rely on.

Nevertheless, we must acknowledge that one condition has remained unchanged compared to the other halvings: in fact, at each recurrence the growth rate of BTC is lower than the previous halving.

In July 2016, in fact, the prices of the cryptocurrency were more than 8,000% higher than the halving of 2012. Similarly, in May 2020, the prices were more than 1,650% higher than four years earlier.

This time BTC is worth over 600% more than in 2020, continuing to increase its market capitalization but at a slower pace, in line with the international adoption of the technology.

halving bitcoin block price
Source: Glassnode

Probably this time we will also witness a post-halving rally of BTC, although with less bullish momentum than in previous years.

Now according to technical analysis, the prices of the crypto asset could slightly decrease as we approach the April halving, and then rebound as soon as a solid support level is found on the chart.

Indicatively, the range of 62,000-58,000 dollars could be the area where bulls could make themselves heard again, pushing the price of Bitcoin towards new highs.

This time, the 100,000 dollars are just a matter of time, or perhaps better to say, just a matter of blocks.

bitcoin price chart
Weekly chart of Bitcoin price (BTC/USD), Bitstamp market
Alessandro Adami
Alessandro Adami
Graduated in "Information, Media and Advertising", for over 4 years interested in the cryptocurrency and blockchain space. Co-Founder of Tokenparty, community active in spreading crypto-enthusiasm. Co-founder of Legal Hackers Civitanova marche. Information technology consultant. Ethereum Fan Boy and supporter of Chainlink oracles, strongly believes that smart contracts will be central in the development of society.