According to analysts at Coinbase, it seems that the Bitcoin halving could already be considered as a anticipated event in the financial markets. In particular, this topic is the subject of constant debate that emerges with each approaching halving.
Let’s see below all the details.
Summary
Halving: the determining factor behind Bitcoin’s recent success according to Coinbase
As anticipated, the debate on the anticipation of Bitcoin’s halving emerges cyclically, often with uncertainty. However, according to analysts at Coinbase, there are signals suggesting a price already adequate in response to this imminent event.
Specifically, in a note sent to The Block, researchers David Duong and David Han stated:
“It is the first halving cycle in which Bitcoin has surpassed its historical high before the halving itself, indicating a mitigation of the effect by experienced operators.”
Nevertheless, they have emphasized the persistent belief that the halving could still trigger a price increase, leading to a market outlook favorable to a rally.
The Bitcoin halving is scheduled between April 16 and 22 of this year. For most of the past weeks, the price of Bitcoin has remained around 70,000 dollars, but on Tuesday it experienced a sharp drop to 65,000 dollars.
Sergei Gorev, risk manager at YouHolder, agrees that any potential appreciation of Bitcoin value resulting from the halving may already be incorporated into the market.
He added that the recent drop could indicate that operators are monetizing in advance in anticipation of increased volatility related to the upcoming halving:
“Cryptocurrency investors seem to increasingly believe that the halving is already priced into the market. Tuesday’s drop suggests they are cashing out in anticipation of the event. However, it seems more like a correction than a bearish trend.”
Perspectives on Bitcoin halving and the uncertainty of future prices
The recent report from Coinbase Institutional has raised doubts about the forecast of a Bitcoin price increase after the halving, citing limited experience from the previous three events.
David Duong, analyst at Coinbase, has pointed out that the main effect of the halving could be the attention it brings to Bitcoin, along with other factors such as market sentiment and adoption trends.
In particular, Duong has indicated that the current Bitcoin rally is fueled by new developments such as the entry of spot ETFs and the growing interest from institutional investors, who have “irrevocably altered” the market landscape of cryptocurrencies.
However, he warned that this could mean that Bitcoin’s reaction to the upcoming halving may deviate from past performances.
We remind you that Bitcoin’s halving, an event that occurs every four years, reduces the reward per block for miners. This time, this will result in a decrease from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block.
Historically, the biggest gains in Bitcoin have been recorded in the 12-18 months following a halving, coinciding with an increase in demand. However, Coinbase notes that the arrival of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs may have already triggered these anticipated gains.
The race of the banking giants for Bitcoin ETFs
The giants of investment banking Morgan Stanley and UBS are about to launch Bitcoin ETFs on their platforms, signaling a growing institutional acceptance of the cryptocurrency and paving the way for wider availability of ETFs.
This competition, as reported, indicates a growing institutional acceptance of Bitcoin and could facilitate access to ETFs for traditional investors.
The ETF expert Eric Balchunas, emphasizing the importance of regulatory compliance during launch times, stated:
“This is a game of conformity respect… it will probably be a moment like all at once.”
The fierce rivalry between Morgan Stanley and UBS to become the first major bank to offer a Bitcoin ETF in the United States suggests that launches could happen within the next week, according to industry experts.
Investors are eagerly awaiting Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which would directly track the price of Bitcoin, and would represent a significant milestone in the traditional adoption of cryptocurrencies.
Eric Balchunas predicts that once one bank has received approval, others will quickly follow, positively influencing the accessibility and demand for Bitcoin through familiar stock market mechanisms.
