Tim Draper has confirmed his 2022 prediction: after the halving, the price of Bitcoin will reach $250,000.
During the Paris Blockchain Week, he said that his prediction is that by the end of the year the price of BTC could reach $250,000, as he had already hypothesized during the bear market.
Summary
The previous forecast
Draper often makes predictions about the price of Bitcoin.
That of November 2022 however at the time sounded rather strange: in the midst of a bear market, with the price dropping from almost $70,000 to just over $15,000 in just 12 months, it claimed that the price of Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by mid-2023.
In 2023 there was indeed a rebound, but by mid-year it had not yet even exceeded $35,000.
So technically Draper’s prediction for 2022 turned out to be wrong, but the error could be limited to the timing indication.
Actually, it doesn’t even seem possible today that the price of BTC will rise to $250,000 even by the middle of 2024, but Draper has corrected this prediction by moving the target to the end of the year.
The $250,000: Tim Draper’s prediction on the price of Bitcoin post-halving
If it seems impossible for the price of BTC to rise to $250,000 by the middle of 2024, it may not actually be entirely impossible for it to achieve this by the end of the year.
However, this prediction by Draper does not seem to be in line with other predictions by other analysts, who argue that the maximum target for this cycle could be higher than $100,000, but lower than $200,000.
However, it should be emphasized that the current cycle is decidedly anomalous, thanks mainly to the new ETFs on Bitcoin spot that can be purchased on traditional stock exchanges. In January, they landed in the USA, and by the end of the month, they could also arrive on the Chinese stock exchange in Hong Kong.
Without ETFs, it is unlikely that the price of BTC would have reached new all-time highs in 2024 before the halving, so much so that it is conceivable that a good portion of the gains in this 2024 were generated by inflows into the new ETFs.
If before the stock market debut of the new ETFs it was thought that Bitcoin could reach the April halving at around $35,000 or $40,000, reaching it at around $70,000 it arrives with a price almost double compared to expectations.
At this point, one could also imagine that in the face of expectations of around $100,000 or $150,000 by the end of the year, the price of BTC could surprise everyone and reach $200,000 or even $250,000.
So Draper’s prediction doesn’t seem absurd, even though the one for 2022 has already proven to be incorrect.
Tim Draper: not only predictions on Bitcoin’s halving
Draper is a well-known Bitcoin investor and, it must be said, it is often difficult to distinguish in his words what is propaganda and what are instead objective and impartial analyses.
Actually, to tell the truth, perhaps it is better not to consider her statements as impartial, and always take them only as statements from a person interested in the success of BTC.
Indeed, during the recent Paris Blockchain Week, he also suggested more or less explicitly to buy some BTC and hold onto them tightly.
His hypothesis is that the new investment products on Bitcoin have opened a new path for those investors who may be discouraged by the prospect of holding BTC in self-custody. He also believes that including Bitcoin in a portfolio serves as a hedge against the devaluation of fiat currencies.
He also added a rather interesting aspect.
Thanks to the new ETFs, even investors who want their portfolios to continue to be managed by fund managers can finally take a position on BTC, because ETFs are regulated products that fund managers can fairly freely include in their clients’ portfolios, obviously subject to their approval.
The problem of fiat currencies
But Draper’s reasoning mainly focuses on the devaluation of fiat currencies.
He believes that fiat currencies are facing inflation and a decrease in their purchasing power, and that this effectively prevents them from being considered good stores of value.
He stated that he does not want to cling to any fiat currency, which decreases in value over time due to political whims or public spending, or politicians who simply decide to spend more money.
It obviously refers to the economic and fiscal policies of the current US government, which in this election year is spending more than necessary for obvious propaganda reasons, causing inflation to rise.
According to Draper, Bitcoin remains a “safe haven” against inflation.
Furthermore, he advised BTC buyers not to bet against the halving, because it reduces the supply, and if demand increases, the price goes up.
