In his analysis, trader Peter Brandt has published his forecast for the price of Bitcoin, stating that we are in the phase of “exponential decay” of its cycle. In numbers, according to Brandt, the peak has already been reached, and now BTC is destined to drop in price to around $30,000 or to the lows of 2021.
Summary
Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC to reach up to 30,000 USD or hit 2021 lows
In his blog post, veteran trader Peter Brandt suggests that we are in the “exponential decay” phase of the Bitcoin cycle. Therefore, his price prediction for BTC is a sharp drop to around $30,000 or to the lows of 2021.
Here are his words:
“But for now we have to deal with exponential decay. It happened. It’s real. You may not want to believe it, but I believe there is a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already reached its peak for this cycle. If Bitcoin has reached its peak, what will be the next step? Obviously, I have no idea. But if Bitcoin has reached its peak, I would expect a drop towards the mid-30K dollars, or towards the lows of 2021.”
Basically, the trader has analyzed the price history of Bitcoin, highlighting that there have been 4 bullish cycles and that, currently, we are in the fifth major bullish cycle.
On this note, Brandt describes that these data could mean that the peak of the BTC price for this bullish cycle has already been reached. This means that we could enter the phase of “exponential decay” for Bitcoin.
Peter Brandt describes the phase of “exponential decay”
Brandt says he is bitter about his pessimistic predictions on the price of Bitcoin, but also encouraged by the fact that data is data. For Brandt, Bitcoin is one of his most important investment positions.
Anyway, here are the data of the five bullish cycles for Bitcoin, [by advancement we mean the growth of the BTC price from the minimum to its maximum of the cycle].
- From December 21, 2009 to June 6, 2011 [progress of 3,191X].
- From November 14, 2011 to November 25, 2013 [progress of 572X].
- From August 17, 2015 to December 18, 2017 [progress of 122X].
- From Dec. 10, 2018 to Nov. 8, 2021 [progress of 22X]
- From November 21, 2022 to xxx x, yyyy [the highest so far is 73,835 dollars recorded on March 14, 2024].
Not only that, Brandt adds:
The amplitude of the 2011-2013 cycle was about 20% of that of the 2009-2011 cycle.
The amplitude of the 2015-2017 cycle was about 20% of the 2011-2013 cycle.
The amplitude of the 2018-2021 cycle was about 20% of the 2015-2017 cycle.
Applying this theory forward, the current bullish cycle should experience an exponential advancement of about 4.5 times (80% of the 22 times of the 2018-2021 cycle).
Said in numbers, Brandt considers that the minimum for the current cycle is $15,473, therefore the forecast for the maximum for this cycle is $72,723, already reached in mid-March 2024.
Bitcoin price forecast: BTC to reach 100,000 USD by the end of 2024
Recently, the results of the survey conducted by Finder involving 31 specialists and analysts in the crypto market have been revealed, with the aim of obtaining new price forecasts for Bitcoin.
Unlike Brandt, here optimism seems to prevail on average. In fact, the first result states that on average, the forecast for the price of Bitcoin by the end of 2024 will be $109,141.
Not only that, other forecasts predict BTC at $150,996 by 2025 and at $567,489 by 2030.
But here too there have been more bearish participants, who have stated that they expect the price of BTC to drop below $20,000 by the end of the year.
