After the latest attack on a DeFi protocol, the market links cryptocurrency hacking to an increasingly plausible threshold: over $1.2 billion stolen during 2026.
Summary
The KelpDAO exploit reignites alarm in the DeFi sector
The incident that hit KelpDAO on 18 April 2026 marked a new major breach in decentralized finance. According to reconstructions, the exploit enabled the unauthorized minting of rsETH without backing, exploiting a flaw in a cross-chain bridge.
The estimated damage is between $290 and $292 million in tokens on Ethereum. In addition, the episode triggered withdrawals of around $10 billion across various lending protocols, extending the impact beyond the initial loss.
A sequence of attacks reinforces fears about 2026
The case follows a pattern similar to what was observed with Drift Protocol at the beginning of April. In that previous attack, losses reached $285 million, confirming a phase of strong pressure on the security of decentralized protocols.
However, the most significant data concerns the frequency of the incidents. In April 2026 alone, there were more than 12 DeFi exploits, a signal that indicates increasingly sophisticated operations against platforms in the sector.
At the moment there is no confirmation of the direct involvement of state actors. That said, the repetition of incidents suggests a higher-risk environment for the entire crypto industry and for the most exposed protocols.
Why cryptocurrency hacking weighs on the prediction market
The market’s interpretation appears consistent with an increased probability that the total value of thefts will exceed $1.2 billion in 2026. In this context, cryptocurrency hacking is treated as a high-impact factor, both for the scale of the losses and for the persistence of vulnerabilities.
In addition, the cumulative effect of these events reinforces the scenario favoring a YES outcome. Compared to less turbulent phases, the current environment appears more volatile and more prone to new episodes of operational and financial stress.
What to watch in the coming weeks
Among the most closely followed figures are Richard Teng of Binance and Brian Armstrong of Coinbase. Their guidance may influence the market’s response and operators’ approach to new security standards.
It will also be important to monitor announcements from major exchanges and regulatory authorities, especially if they affect DeFi security policies. Another key front concerns updates from cybersecurity firms.
Analyses by CertiK and PeckShield will be useful for assessing how the threat landscape is evolving. Overall, new incidents or regulatory interventions could quickly change the perception of risk for 2026.
The KelpDAO case therefore confirms a structural vulnerability in DeFi. If the sequence of attacks continues at this pace, surpassing the $1.2 billion threshold in 2026 would become an increasingly likely scenario.
