Today the price of SOL, Solana’s native cryptocurrency, is down.
In reality the drop already started last Tuesday, and today it is simply continuing.
It is therefore necessary to understand not only what the causes are, but also whether it is destined to end or not.
Summary
The drop
On Tuesday, May 12, a new decline in the price of SOL began, which in fact is still ongoing today.
However, it should be specified that in the previous seven days it had risen from $84 to over $98, with +18% which, in a market phase like this, seemed a bit unusual.
It should also be said that starting from February 12, that is three months earlier, it entered a sideways phase between $78 and $98, and this already explains many things.
To tell the truth, starting from mid-April the lower line of the sideways movement rose, first to $79 and then to $82, and this makes the situation even clearer.
In other words, this sideways phase is simply continuing.
When on May 11 the price of Solana tested the $98 wall, not only did it fail to break through it, but it then almost immediately recorded a reverse rebound that is bringing it back towards the lower point of the current sideways phase.
The end of the drop
Although in theory there is still some room to fall further, already today the first signs of a possible end to this short period of decline can be seen.
The support that has held since April is at $79.
However, starting from mid-April another one already seemed to have formed around $81.5.
In addition, in May another one seems to have formed just below $83, and the current price is just under $85.
It is possible to hypothesize three main scenarios.
The first is a continuation of the decline between today, tomorrow, and perhaps the coming days, going on to retest the last support just below $83. This would in theory be the scenario most in line with the current market situation.
The second scenario, which perhaps appears a bit less likely, is that the decline could continue even below $82, going on to test the lower supports at $81.5 or even $79.
However, there is also a third scenario that today is starting to show some signs of probability.
The rebound
In fact, the trend of the lows in this sideways phase, which has lasted for more than three months, is upward.
In reality the maximum ceiling has always been positioned around $98, which suggests that it is rather difficult to manage to surpass it.
But if today the fourth higher low (79$, 81.5$, 82.7$ and 84.2$) has been formed, one could indeed expect an imminent rebound.
However, there are two problems.
The first is that it is by no means certain that the above-mentioned decline has formed a fourth higher low precisely today. On the contrary, the hypothesis that seems more plausible is that in theory it could still go back to retest the support just below $83.
The second is that, even in the event of a rebound, there remains that ceiling at $98 that has held for months.
Forecasts
The fact is that short-term sentiment is still bearish.
This supports the hypothesis that Solana may try again to test the support just below $83, but it should not be forgotten that sentiment is mainly an expression of retail investors/speculators, who rarely know clearly what is really happening.
However, there is an important watershed, between $78 and $79.
In fact, if $78 holds, several analysts imagine that it could soon return above $90. This would be a scenario compatible with the rebound hypothesis mentioned above.
If instead sooner or later $78 were no longer to hold, there is a risk of the formation of a head and shoulders pattern that could indeed bring the price of SOL much lower.
In the medium term, the divergences between analysts widen further.
For example, some see a return above $120 or even above $150 by the end of the year, while others see a drop below $70.
At the moment there are probably more bullish forecasts than bearish ones, in sharp contrast with the negative sentiment.
The signs of weakness
Unfortunately, since the beginning of the year Solana’s on-chain transaction volumes have more than halved, including trading volumes on DEXs.
This is consistent with the sharp drop in the price of SOL in 2026, which however was concentrated mainly between January and February, even though in reality it had started a few months earlier.
Even the revenues generated by dApps on the Solana network have fallen significantly, outlining a picture that is not positive.
However, this is a trend common to almost all DeFi blockchains, so much so that Solana has managed to maintain second place for TVL, behind only Ethereum.
Therefore, although the picture seems negative, for now it is possible to imagine both that the real decline may have ended in February, and that the sideways movement that has been underway for three months may continue.
