Despite the recent conviction of guilt for Donald Trump, the traders of Polymarket continue to bet on his victory in the 2024 elections. Not only that, for 75% of the bets it seems that Trump will not go to prison.
Summary
Donald Trump and the traders on Polymarket: increasing bets on his victory as President of the USA
At the end of May, Donald Trump was declared guilty of as many as 34 charges by the Manhattan court. Despite the conviction, the candidate for the Presidency of the United States still seems to be the favorite winner, at least for the traders of Polymarket.
Polymarket is a platform where users buy and sell shares using crypto, betting on the probability of future events occurring.
And indeed, Polymarket itself shared on X the betting situation on the “winner of the 2024 Presidential elections” with Donald Trump leading with 54% of the votes.
“Winner of the 2024 presidential elections: Donald Trump 54% (+16); Joe Biden 38%; Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 2%.”
At the moment, then, the situation has also changed. The bets on Donald Trump as the new President of the USA have risen to 56%, while on Joe Biden they have fallen to 37%.
Donald Trump and the bets on Polymarket: for traders, he will not go to prison
Another bet on Polymarket also reveals that the majority of traders bet that Donald Trump will not go to prison.
Specifically, 75% of traders have bet that Trump will not go to prison, while 18% have bet on the range of 1-11 months of prison. Then, 3% of traders have bet that Trump will go to prison for over 48 months.
A similar bet, also on Polymarket, instead concerned the case of Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), founder and former CEO of the failed crypto-exchange FTX. Even SBF, during the week of waiting for the verdict on his sentence, was the protagonist of bets on the number of years of prison he would receive.
With hindsight, only 28% of traders would have won, betting on the 20-30 year prison range, given that the sentence for SBF was 25 years in prison.
The situation on crypto regulation in the USA?
The conviction of Trump could also concern the crypto world, given that in this year of electoral campaign and voting, the candidate for the Presidency of the USA is showing support for the sector.
In the month of May, in fact, it emerged that Trump’s election campaign has started to accept Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and other crypto.
Not only that, Trump has also promised that if he is elected President of the USA, he will proceed with the liberation of Ross Ulbricht, founder of Silk Road, sentenced to two life sentences plus 40 years in prison. As is well known, Ulbricht has become a sort of martyr for many, even in the crypto community.
