The Satis analysis indicates a value of 96 thousand dollars for BTC in 2023 and 144 thousand dollars in 2028.
On these dates, Ethereum (ETH) should have a value of 686 dollars and then drop to 588 in 2028. While Ripple’s XRP would see its price fall to $0.01 in five years and $0.004 in ten years.
How realistic are these forecasts? The Satis report performs a sector-specific analysis, i.e. it divides the virtual currencies into homogeneous groups and then analyses the expected price evolution for each group, depending on the function of the currencies themselves.
Thus some functions are seen as more relevant than others and the price forecast has been conducted on the basis of this assessment. In any case, continuous growth in the capitalisation value of these currencies is expected.
Satis considers as prevalent the use of cryptocurrencies for the value of confidentiality and this pushes to emphasize virtual currencies like Dash and Monero, that in 2028 would arrive at a price of 2.927$ and 3.9584$ respectively.
What are the weak points of this evaluation? We can identify three weaknesses:
- first of all, there are external factors, such as the adoption by financial intermediaries, which can affect the value of individual cryptocurrencies;
- secondly, the photograph was taken now, or rather a few months ago. It does not take into account the introduction of currencies with more advanced characteristics, such as those based on the MimbleWimble protocol, and which could completely change the outlook for the sector;
- finally, the sectoral breakdown of currencies and the growth forecasts for each crypto could also not be achieved to the extent expected. For example, greater diffusion of smart contracts could lead to better exploitation of the implementation platforms of the contracts themselves and of the related tokens.
Satis’ snapshot is a static illustration that shows a possible valuation under current conditions, a factor that is strongly limiting in a dynamic sector such as that of virtual currencies.