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Bitcoin analysis: bearish price despite Bakkt

In the analysis of this summer’s end, it should be noted that the price of bitcoin gives excellent signals. In spite of the fact that it has been a two-sided phase, the quarter closed positively. If September ended with bitcoin above 10,000 dollars it would be the first time that we would close above 10,000 dollars for two consecutive quarters. 

Source: COIN360.com

However, the first day of autumn sees an opening of the week with a prevalence of negative signs, which somewhat sums up the weekend, characterised by low volumes and low volatility. 

Today only Ethereum is able to stay above parity while the other cryptocurrencies suffer falls, although not too severe. TRON today is the worst of the top 20 with a drop of 5%. 

Last week Ethereum was the first of the altcoins to give a strong bullish signal with a 20% jump on a weekly basis. Generally speaking, the last few hours have seen reabsorption of euphoria for Ethereum and the other altcoins, with a technical retracement that will remain so if there is a return of force in the next few hours. 

Today is a historic day: Bakkt, after a long wait, launched the platform for buying and selling bitcoin futures backed by physical BTC. The launch took place during the European night. Bakkt was currently not welcomed with any enthusiasm or euphoria, as many mistakenly expected. In the early hours a dozen bitcoins were traded, however, the Bakkt project is set to yield results in a few months’ time

With today’s movements, capitalisation has fallen back to just over $263 billion, levels that are of no particular concern. The retreat of the first three cryptocurrencies does not particularly affect their respective dominance. Bitcoin recovers a few decimal points, returning just above the threshold of 68%, whereas the market shares of Ethereum and Ripple remain unchanged.

Bitcoin chart by Tradingview

Bitcoin (BTC) price analysis

Bitcoin in recent hours has returned below the threshold of 10,000 dollars, a level that is no longer delicate. This threshold has been violated upwards and downwards 25 times in the last three months, resulting in a loss of efficiency which was considered an important level to be recovered three months ago. 

Bitcoin remains within the bearish triangle, congestion that continues to increase the attention of the upcoming movement that will take place. Indeed, during strong periods of congestion, an explosion of prices is to be expected.

At a technical level, the indications of last week remain valid since there have been no particular changes to the general framework. Volumes remain below the annual average while volatility is just above 2%, levels lower than in the last 5 months.

Ethereum chart by Tradingview

Ethereum (ETH) 

Ethereum, after pushing above the threshold of 220 dollars, in the last hours returns to give directions to test the psychological threshold of 200 dollars. This is an important level for Ethereum, a watershed area for the medium to long term. 

It is necessary for Ethereum to consolidate above this level during the week. This would open the possibility of a further extension that could lead to the recovery of $235, a level abandoned with concern last July.

Federico Izzi
Federico Izzi
Financial analyst and independent #trader – S.I.A.T. & Assob.it partner. He operates actively on stock and derivatives markets (futures and options) since 1997. A precursor of cyclic-volumetric analysis he is known for having identified the most important upward and downward movements in the financial markets of recent years. He participates annually as a speaker at the ITForum in Rimini since the 2010 edition and InvestingRoma and Napoli since the first edition of 2015. He is a guest and market expert on the "Trading Room" and "Market Driver" broadcasts of Class CNBC, Borsa Diretta.tv and on the evening news of Traderlink. Since July 2017 he is a permanent guest on LeFonti.TV, the only weekly national space dedicated to cryptocurrencies alongside the most important international experts in the field. He was interviewed as a cryptocurrency expert for Forbes Italia, Panorama, StartupItalia and DonnaModerna. He was recognized as the first Italian technical analyst to have published the first secular cyclic analysis on Bitcoin. Periodically publishes articles on ITForum News, Sole24Ore, MILANOFINANZA, TrendOnLine and Wall Street Italy. Federico Izzi is... "Zio Romolo".