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Altcoin Season coming up: the prediction in disagreement with McAfee
Altcoin Season coming up: the prediction in disagreement with McAfee
Interview

Altcoin Season coming up: the prediction in disagreement with McAfee

By Amelia Tomasicchio - 7 Dec 2019

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QuodSemper is the Twitter nickname of a trader who states in his biography that he was “the one who made it possible for Doge to be listed on Binance“. The Cryptonomist interviewed him to know more and to talk about trading and predictions for the altcoin season that is perhaps coming up.

We know that you have contributed significantly to the listing of Dogecoin on Binance, can you tell us more about this cryptocurrency?

Dogecoin is a phenomenal crypto from all points of view, both as a cryptocurrency and as an asset. As an asset, it is on its way to being among the best ever for its amazing performance. It is often said in a contemptuous way that Dogecoin is an inflationary cryptocurrency. In reality, in a volatile market like that of cryptocurrencies, its large supply makes Dogecoin one of the most stable cryptocurrencies there is, it is basically a stablecoin

With the only advantage, with respect to a stablecoin, that Dogecoin is able to increase in price like very few other cryptocurrencies, resulting in tremendous growth: in 2017 it had an ROI of 4261%.

As a cryptocurrency, although there is negative rhetoric about it in some ways, it is superior in technological terms, and not only, compared to a myriad of cryptocurrencies. It is faster (1 minute to generate a block) than BTC, LTC, BCH, DASH, XMR, BSV; and it has very competitive commissions (1 doge), which is more convenient than, for example, ETH.

But the most important aspect for a cryptocurrency is its use-case, and Dogecoin, as admitted also by John McAfee, is among the cryptocurrencies with the most use cases. Recently it has been shown that it is used twice as much as the Bitcoin Lightning Network. Moreover, it is one of the few cryptocurrencies present in ATMs, as has been recently demonstrated.

If I were the CEO of McDonald’s or an important business with a strong appeal to children, I would adopt Dogecoin as a payment cryptocurrency. It’s the family-friendly crypto; it’s the only one with this charisma.

To return to the subject of technology, I am very confident that we could soon see the doge-ethereum project realised.

Why is the price of BTC falling? Do you think it’s time for the altcoins?

Before answering the question, I first have to make a clarification to justify the proposed analysis. I am deeply opposed to news-based analysis, whereby good news, the price of BTC goes up, bad news, it goes down, as some important analysts are accustomed to do.

BTC has a very precise graphic structure, marked by descending, corrective and bullish cycles. From February 2018 until about February 2019, we have witnessed a downward cycle, ie the period in which investors have taken the profits of the bullish cycle of late 2017 and early January 2018. 

From February/March 2019 began the corrective period, in which prices have substantially adjusted and currently we are still in this cycle about to move to the bullish cycle that is very close. We are approaching the highly anticipated halving

Having said that, in order to respond specifically to the question, I shall begin by saying that I am not at all surprised by this collapse. I have been saying for months that BTC would drop. We are witnessing yet another correction required by the cycle in which we find ourselves, which can be seen very clearly from the BTC graph.

The correction, however, has not yet stopped, the chart is extremely bearish. There are 2 key trendline supports that BTC should not break, otherwise there is a risk of falling to $4,191 dollars. Anyway, I think that BTC will probably fall at least to $6,570 dollars if in the next few days it does not cross the $8,500 dollar resistance. There are, however, various supports that BTC risks to break and it can absolutely not afford to go down from the support of the $7,400 dollars, if we don’t really want to consider as very real hypothesis the above mentioned figures. 

We would officially be in a bullrun overcoming the resistance of $9,500 dollars, but I see it as an unreal scenario in the short term. We will not see any more BTC at such a low price, it is a unique opportunity.

Moving on to the altcoins, I would like to introduce the concept of “Interchangeability of the cycle” BTC and Altcoins, which is the import and export of reciprocal dominance between BTC and Altcoins. 

I have come to the conclusion, and it is in fact only a hypothesis that needs to be confirmed or denied in the coming months, given that the cryptocurrency market is in its infancy, that the bullish cycle occurs when BTC has about 50% dominance, or even less. 

During the all-time-high period of $20,000, BTC had a dominance of about 52% and on January 8, 2018, it even fell to 37%. Nevertheless, BTC’s price stood at the incredible $16,500 and this is the period when the Alt season culminated with the ATH of XLM (January 4), XRP (January 4), ADA (January 4), TRON (January 5), DOGE (January 7), XMR (January 7), ETH (January 13) and NEO (January 15).

I noticed that with a dominance above 60%, the price of BTC, as they say in economic terms, stagnates, i.e. stops in stall position, getting stuck and ending up harming not only itself but also the altcoins, as can be currently attested. 

Therefore, unlike what one might think, the collapse of BTC’s dominance is positive not only for the altcoins but also for BTC itself. In the post below I published the current update on the dominance of BTC.

Therefore, with balanced equity of dominance between Alts and BTC, the bullish season should begin, which will most likely see, in a contemporary way, the Alt season and the BTC season, just as it happened in the previous bullish cycle.

However, I can’t deny that it’s been months since I announced that the Alt season, this time, would have anticipated the BTC bull run. I am perfectly aware that it is a more difficult scenario considering the difficulty of expecting BTC as a supporting actor even for a short period. 

I still believe, however, that there is a good chance that there will be an anticipatory effect of the alt season (which will be accentuated after the BTC rally). It is sufficient to verify the graphs of the main altcoins: they are all at their bottom and therefore indicate an imminent dizzying growth with the return to the ATH or even beyond. As an example, I mention ADA, DOGE, ZEC, XRP and ETH.

ETH has a higher relevance than any other, being the altcoin with the highest capitalisation. Well, each bullish cycle of ETH has occurred in December and the graph is preparing, once again, with absolute precision, to begin in December.

I am therefore of the opinion that in a few weeks we could see an imminent taste of the Alt season, with a still bearish BTC.

What are your predictions for the price of bitcoin?

My BTC price prediction is absolutely bullish. I’m sure that in 2020 there will be an overcoming of the all-time-high setting a new record, regardless of the news that could fall on BTC. I think the price will be between 30 thousand and 45 thousand dollars.

The news can have an effect in the short term with pump and dump (like the recent Chinese news), but can not change the structural aspects of the graph in the wide horizon. 

Sometimes the news, even the most positive ones, have no effect, think of the sensational news of New Zealand; whereas sometimes the news can facilitate and trigger the structural aspects that are announced by the charts, think of the Trump tweet.

Of course, some pieces of news have an effect, such as the quotations on Binance and Coinbase. Dogecoin, for example, after being listed on Binance, scored a rise of 35%. So, even if BTC had everybody against it, they won’t be able to stop its unstoppable climb.

 

Amelia Tomasicchio
Amelia Tomasicchio

As expert in digital marketing, Amelia began working in the fintech sector in 2014 after writing her thesis on Bitcoin technology. Previously author for Cointelegraph and CMO at Eido. She is now the co-founder and editor-in-chief of The Cryptonomist.

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