A few hours ago Anthony Pompliano stated that he believes that the Bitcoin halving has not yet been priced in by the markets.
The co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital has in fact published a very short tweet in which he simply says:
“The Bitcoin halving is not priced in.”
The Bitcoin halving is not priced in.
— Pomp 🌪 (@APompliano) February 17, 2020
The point is that professional investors generally always consider future events long before they happen.
This often causes the price of a financial asset to be influenced by predictable events well before they become reality, which is why it is common to say that an event has already been priced in by the market well in advance.
The upcoming Bitcoin halving is a predictable event, something that will certainly happen, although the exact date is not yet known. It is expected to take place around May 12th, 2020, in three months’ time.
Most professional traders who invest in a financial asset with the belief that within three months its value may increase, do so in advance, in anticipation of a good time to enter – which is when the price is low.
BTC’s lowest prices in recent times were recorded around mid-December last year, when it fell below $7,000.
In recent days the price had risen above $10,000, suggesting that the markets had already priced in the May halving.
However, according to Pompliano’ tweet, this hasn’t actually happened yet.
In fact, the recent drop, which brought the price back below $10,000, may suggest that many investors have not yet accumulated enough BTC in view of the halving, which means that the price of BTC may rise.
In other words, Pompliano suggests that large professional investors may be accumulating BTC again during this period in anticipation of a possible increase in value in the days or weeks leading up to halving.
If Pompliano’s assumption is correct, then as long as BTC’s price remains below $10,000, the accumulation period ahead of the halving could continue, with bitcoin prices rising above $10,000 as the halving approaches.
At this point it is not known if this hypothesis is correct, but it does at least seem plausible.
Moreover, the famous crypto influencer has not stated what could be in his opinion the price levels achievable by bitcoin before May 12th, 2020.