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Bitcoin: volatility at lows for 9 months

After leaving behind the third consecutive week that has been characterized by the highest number of downward days, something that hasn’t happened since last November, the markets are attempting to climb, even though at the moment, despite recording the second consecutive day on the rise, the signal remains hesitant, while Bitcoin’s volatility has remained at lows for 9 months

coin360 20200630
Source: COIN360.com

Still, the day sees a prevalence of green signs, with over 60% above parity, but among the big ones, there are no particular signs worthy of note. 

Among the top 25, only Crypto.com (CRO) continues to give good bullish signals. With a further leap of 7% in the last 24 hours, CRO is now moving towards the ninth position of EOS which drops to 10th. It’s a historic event that sees Crypto.com move behind Binance Coin (BNB) with a difference of just over $200 million in capitalization. 

COMP 20200630

On the opposite side, there is Compound (COMP), in 23rd position, which loses 2.5%. After the euphoria recorded in the early hours following the launch of the governance token from the leader in the DeFi sector, with an increase of over 500%, Compound scores a reversal that marks a -50% from the highs recorded on June 21st

In recent days it has fluctuated between 220 and 260 dollars, trying to stabilize its value in this range. 

It is currently at $230, scoring 40% from the highs recorded on June 21st, 4 days after the launch of the token. 

ERD 20200630

Among the main rises of the day, there is Elrond (ERD) on the podium today, which with a jump of 12% enters for the first time in the ranking of the best 100 capitalized with a market cap of just over $53 million. 

Elrond is a project led by a Romanian team that aims at developing a scalable blockchain infrastructure to process over 10,000 transactions per second using a Proof of Stake algorithm, a fast, efficient and secure consensus mechanism. 

In recent days Elrond has touched $0.0065, setting the highest peak in the last year. This peak has led to profit-taking that pushed prices to 0.0043 where the price started to recover, and is now halfway between these values, at 0.005 dollars. 

From the lows of March, Elrond nearly reached a gain of 900% with the value multiplied by 10 times, entering for the first time in the ranking of the first 100 most capitalized.

Market capitalization is back just under 260 billion dollars, with Bitcoin fluctuating just under 65%. 

Ethereum also stabilizes its dominance and remains at weekend levels, having failed to recover above 10%. XRP is back again below the 3% threshold, the lowest level in the last 3 years, close to last week’s low.

Total trading volumes remain just below the $50 billion threshold. 

BTC 20200630
Bitcoin chart by Tradingview

Bitcoin (BTC) volatility at lows

Bitcoin continues to fluctuate tediously between $9,000 and $9,100. The trading volumes, after having reached the second-lowest level since last February, return to above 1.3 billion dollars, below the average of the last month. 

The volatility for Bitcoin continues to update the lows of the last 9 months by one decimal place. Since the end of December 2019, there has been no volatility below 2.18%. Bitcoin prices continue to fluctuate just above the $9,000 threshold, highlighting the importance of the lows recorded during the weekend, $9,300. 

At $8,900, hedging positions for options are accumulating. Put positions are rising again after last Friday’s closing which saw the open interest on the aggregate value of all options halved, particularly on the two main markets offering this delicate instrument, Derebit and CME. 

Put trading volumes are rising again, with call positions between $9,800 and $10,100 on the opposite side, levels that coincide with the relative highs recorded in the second decade of June, between 10th and 11th June. 

For Bitcoin, June is about to end as a slightly negative month, with a loss of about 3%.

In June, the first day of trading had recorded the highest peak of the last four months, reaching $10,400, a few dollars short of the annual high recorded in mid-February, $10,490. A double maximum since the beginning of the year.

During this lateral phase, with volatility at the lows of the last 9 months, it is necessary to up the levels of vigilance.  The levels to monitor carefully in the coming hours and days are those where the majority of recently opened put options emerge ($8,750-8,950), while upwards it is $9,650-10,100, where open call positions prevail, a wider range. 

ETH 20200630
Ethereum chart by Tradingview

Ethereum (ETH)

Despite last Friday’s exit from the bullish channel with the breaking of the lower neckline of $230, prices are holding up well with the support of $215, where during the fall of the weekend the return of purchases prevailed, which remained low even on Ethereum, with trading volumes below the average for the month of June. 

Yesterday and during the weekend Ethereum has traded very little, remaining in the average of the last week. At the moment ETH is holding steady the lateral phase present since the end of May. For Ethereum it is necessary to give a signal that could attract new purchases, such as the recovery of $235-240, in order to aspire towards recovering the highs recorded in the early hours of June, at $254.

In contrast, a signal of weakness would come with the break-down of $215, a threshold that in the last 15 days has proved to be a level of defence by the Bulls that have reacted positively twice to the attack of the $215 test, on the 15th and 27th of June. 


Federico Izzi
Federico Izzi
Financial analyst and independent #trader – S.I.A.T. & Assob.it partner. He operates actively on stock and derivatives markets (futures and options) since 1997. A precursor of cyclic-volumetric analysis he is known for having identified the most important upward and downward movements in the financial markets of recent years. He participates annually as a speaker at the ITForum in Rimini since the 2010 edition and InvestingRoma and Napoli since the first edition of 2015. He is a guest and market expert on the "Trading Room" and "Market Driver" broadcasts of Class CNBC, Borsa Diretta.tv and on the evening news of Traderlink. Since July 2017 he is a permanent guest on LeFonti.TV, the only weekly national space dedicated to cryptocurrencies alongside the most important international experts in the field. He was interviewed as a cryptocurrency expert for Forbes Italia, Panorama, StartupItalia and DonnaModerna. He was recognized as the first Italian technical analyst to have published the first secular cyclic analysis on Bitcoin. Periodically publishes articles on ITForum News, Sole24Ore, MILANOFINANZA, TrendOnLine and Wall Street Italy. Federico Izzi is... "Zio Romolo".