The merry-go-round began on Monday with prices attacking the early November highs, faded in the mid-week passage with quotations backtesting the late November highs and in the last few hours climbing back to the levels of the beginning of the round.
Maintaining this Friday’s quotations and until Sunday’s close would form the third upward weekly close.
A technical condition that has been realized only once in the last year, between July and August, in the rebound phase after the bearish movement exploded with the crisis and failure of the Earth/Moon project.
Phase in some ways similar to the current one that began in early November with the crisis and failure of the FTX exchange.
The technical similarities of the previous structure with the current one recommend maintaining a good deal of caution before declaring a medium-term (monthly) trend reversal.
Fears are also found by the indicator measuring investors’ moods. The ‘Fear&Greed’ index is registering a positive reaction with the value climbing back to the 30-point area since the beginning of the month, coming out of the zone of ‘extreme fear’ but not of ‘fear’.
Volatility has returned to the levels of early November, before the FTX crisis, in a period with values close to the lowest levels in the last two years. This a clue to watch closely in the coming days or weeks if the downward trend continues.
To date, excluding deep declines in the next couple of days, the week shows a clear prevalence of positive balances.
Bitcoin and Ethereum prices in detail
Bitcoin returns above US$17,300, the highest level since last Nov. 11, staving off the dangers of short-term speculation.
From a medium-term perspective, it is necessary to break above the 17,550-17,600 USD threshold accompanied by increasing volumes.
Upward movement is expected within the first days of next week. Otherwise, the dangers of a return of bearishness are encouraged by the failure to hold the 17k USD’s psychological threshold increase.
For the weekend it is important to keep quotations above 17k USD and still not sink below 16,700 USD. The risk is to undo the consolidation that has been underway since the beginning of the month, which is necessary to prepare for the next leap higher.
Ethereum‘s technical structure in recent days aligns with Bitcoin’s trend, bringing back the correlation that has been missing for several weeks.
A correlation that, if confirmed in the coming days as well, could see the passing of the chief relay. A technical signal historically favorable for the start of a bullish rally.
Between Saturday and Sunday, it will be important not to witness slips below USD 1,220-1,200 so as not to break the bullish trend that began in the last week of November and that registers a performance of more than 20 percent, almost double the performance so far cashed by BTC.