According to Mike Novogratz’s prediction, there would be a good chance that the price of Bitcoin will return to $30,000 by the end of the quarter, which is in March.
The prediction was made a few days ago during a Bank of America conference Novogratz attended.
Summary
Novogratz’s statements regarding Bitcoin price prediction
It is actually clear from the words uttered by Novogratz that this is not really a real prediction with a good chance of coming true, but only a hypothesis that is deemed entirely possible.
Indeed, the founder of Galaxy Digital Holdings said:
“When I look at the price action, when I look at the excitement of the customers calling, the FOMO building up, it wouldn’t surprise me if we were at US$30,000 by the end of the quarter. And I would’ve given both my shoes for that to be true just six weeks ago. Like if we end the year US$30,000, I will be the happiest guy.”
It is worth noting that these statements were made on 15 February, which is when the price of BTC in a single day went from $22,200 to $24,900, but then failed in its first attempt to break the $25,000 wall.
However although that prediction is definitely a result of the FOMO that was there the day before yesterday in Bitcoin’s market, it is an assumption shared by other analysts as well.
Indeed, the trend that the price of BTC is following in these early months of 2023 is broadly reminiscent of that of 2019, or the previous post-bear market year.
In 2019, it came from the annual low peak in December 2018, at $3,200, and within two months had already climbed 28% to $4,100.
It made its second spike in early April, when it rose to $5,300, which was 65% higher than the December low.
This year the price was coming from the annual low peak of $15,500 in November 2022, and by 15 February it had recovered 60%. So although the timing is a bit different, with the 2023 growth being faster than the 2019 growth, there still seems to be room for further growth.
In addition, Novogratz confirmed his prediction that Bitcoin’s price in the future could reach $500,000, but making it slip further forward than the 2024 he had previously assumed.
Novogratz’s other predictions
Novogratz has made numerous other Bitcoin price prediction in the past.
It has to be said that generally his predictions were always bullish, perhaps even a bit too much so.
For example, in June 2022 he said that crypto markets were near the bottom, and instead in November there was another crash. However, Bitcoin’s price in November fell to $15,500, while in June it had fallen to $17,500.
Whereas in October 2020 he said the price of Bitcoin would return to $20,000 by the end of the year, and indeed it did. In fact, by 31 December 2020 it even rose above $25,000.
In September 2018, which is three months before that year’s bottom, he said the crypto market would recover, and indeed in April 2019 it did.
However, it was in November 2018 that he made a prediction that was nothing short of prophetic, getting only the years wrong.
He told the Financial News:
“Bitcoin has to take out $6,800, and after that we could end the year at $8,800 to 9,000. By the end of the first quarter [of 2019], we will take out $10,000. And after that, we will go back to new highs — to $20,000 or more.”
2018 closed below $4,000, but over the course of the following year Bitcoin’s price actually first managed to rise above $6,000, and then by the end of the year also rose above $9,000, after a brief hike to $13,000. It also exceeded $10,000 in the first quarter of 2020, only to collapse momentarily to $4,000 due to the onset of the pandemic.
Of course, it is absolutely impossible to get all predictions right down to the smallest detail, but broadly speaking what Novogratz claimed was supposed to happen between the end of 2018 and the beginning of 2019 happened in almost the exact same way between 2019 and the beginning of 2020.
It is worth noting that he bought his first Bitcoin at an auction in 2013, when the price was around $50.
The $25,000 wall
Before trying to climb back up to $30,000, Bitcoin’s price must try to break down the $25,000 wall.
Indeed, it has tried it twice in recent days, even with great force, but has not succeeded. Indeed, after yesterday’s failure, the price fell back below $24,000, but it is entirely possible that it could make another attempt.
According to Novogratz’s prediction, these other attempts should take place as early as the next few days, or at the latest in the first half of March, although in reality if the 2019 trend is followed there is time until April.
It is worth mentioning that the anomalous rise of the past few days was partly due to an event that is difficult to repeat, namely, fears about the resilience of USDC that now seem to have almost completely dissipated.
However, for some time now the crypto markets have shown us how common contingencies can be, and how profoundly they can affect price movements.
