Over the past few days, there has been some decidedly interesting news regarding the price performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
In fact, although the long lateralization that began after mid-March is still ongoing, at least the waning phase of early May seems to be over.
Bitcoin’s price, latest news and comparison with Ethereum
The price of BTC exceeded $27,000 for the first time this year on 18 March, and since then it has begun a long phase of lateralization with fluctuations between $26,000 and $30,000, with very few and very brief excursions outside this range.
It is not a particularly compressed price range, but it is still by no means wide. It is enough to think that only a week before the lateralization phase began the price was still below $20,000.
What is really interesting is what has been happening in recent days.
In fact, after the annual peak in mid-April, at over $31,000, the price of Bitcoin had retraced, returning around the $27,000 mark. Even though in late April it had tried again to return to $30,000, without succeeding, just before mid-May it was back just above $27,000.
As can be easily understood, this is the key level at this time.
However, on 11 May it had suffered a new retracement, which took the price all the way below $26,000 on 25 May.
The interesting thing is that in the last four days it has made a real rebound that brought it back first above $27,000, and then also above $28,000.
So the lateralization phase is still ongoing, because the descending phase that had occurred during the first half of May is now completely overtaken.
However, it is by no means certain that the rebound will continue further in the coming hours, or in the coming days.
Latest crypto news on Ethereum price on the heels of Bitcoin
A similar argument can be made for Ethereum, but with some differences.
In fact, the reference price does not seem to be the $1,800 recovered on Friday, but the $1,900 recovered today.
Similarly, the first breach of the 2023 high of $1,800 for ETH occurred on 18 March, but thereafter the price went well beyond it. During the long lateralization phase it has not hovered around $1,800, but around $1,900, with peaks above $2,100 in April.
The bulk of the difference with BTC is due mainly to the market impact of the Sepolia update of 12 April, which had driven ETH’s price up already in the weeks before, and which drove it decisively higher in mid-April.
At that point the retracement was higher, so much so that it even went below $1,800.
Hence, the price level around which Ethereum’s price has been hovering for more than two months now is higher than Bitcoin’s, when compared to the mid-March price level.
The burn of ETH
In addition to this, the burn of ETH is proceeding at a rapid pace.
In fact, for many months now, part of the fees paid by those who carry out transactions on the Ethereum blockchain have been burned, so much so that a total of 3.33 million ETH have been burned in this way to date, out of a total of 120.2 million existing ETH.
For example, from early 2022 until September 2021, when the burn process began, the supply of Ethereum had increased from 109 million to 117, an increase of 7% in just over a year and a half.
In contrast, from September 2021 until now it has only increased to 120 million, an increase of 2.5% in less than two years.
What’s more, since September 2022, which is when there was a switch to Proof-of-Stake, it has decreased by 0.25%, from 120.5 to 120.2 million ETH.
As a result, Ethereum has not been an inflating currency for almost a year now, because its money supply is no longer increasing.
The return of Chinese capital
Perhaps one reason for the recent rebound in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices is due to the news of the reopening of crypto exchanges in Hong Kong.
Even though Hong Kong has its own laws, and is in some ways a separate jurisdiction from China’s so-called “mainland,” it is still Chinese territory controlled by the autocratic Chinese state.
Hence, the reopening of crypto exchanges in Hong Kong is seen as an opening of China to the crypto sector, and suggests that not only capital from Hong Kong may return to the crypto markets, but also capital from all over China.
Capital from Hong Kong will return shortly, starting on 1 June, but over the course of the next few months sooner or later Chinese capital may return as well, especially if China decides to allow all of its people to be able to use the crypto trading services offered by Hong Kong exchanges.
In anticipation of a possible medium-term return of Chinese capital to the crypto markets, there has been little optimism about these markets, and it may have helped the rebound that began yesterday.