Global investment bank analyst Morgan Stanley has been speaking on the forecasting for Bitcoin and the crypto market. According to Denny Galindo, it appears that crypto winter may be over, while cryptocurrency spring is probably on the horizon.
Summary
Bitcoin forecasting: “a new crypto spring on the horizon,” Morgan Stanley’s word
Denny Galdino, an analyst at renowned global investment bank Morgan Stanley, has released a report with his Bitcoin and crypto market predictions, “Will Crypto Spring Ever Come?”
In the report, he considers the halving of Bitcoin that occurs every four years or so, as well as past history on the price trend of BTC and crypto, as signals from which to derive an effective future forecast.
Not only that, Galdino describes the historical cycle of crypto trading as the four “seasons,” describing them one by one.
All of these predictions can be verified after Bitcoin’s next halving, expected in April 2024.
Here is how the Morgan Stanley analyst report describes the connection between Bitcoin halving and the cycle of seasons in the crypto market
“A unique aspect of Bitcoin is that it is designed to go through a process called halving, which creates scarcity so that Bitcoin can maintain its value. Specifically, every four years, the number of Bitcoin created every 10 minutes is halved. Eventually, when there are 21 million Bitcoin, no more will be mined.
By intentionally limiting the supply of new Bitcoin, the shortage caused by halving can affect the price of Bitcoin and potentially spur an upward run. There have been three Bitcoin bull runs since its inception in 2011, each lasting 12 to 18 months after the halving. Just as a farmer avoids planting seedlings in winter or too late in spring, cryptocurrency investors want to know when cryptocurrency spring has arrived to maximize the ‘growing season’ of their investments.”
Bitcoin forecasting and the four-season crypto market cycle according to Morgan Stanley
Interesting takeaway from Galbino’s report is his description of the four seasons of the crypto market, just like Summer, Fall, Winter and, indeed, Spring.
And so, by Summer, the Morgan Stanley analyst means the post-halving period, when the price run-up occurs and when Bitcoin’s biggest gains are recorded. The crypto Summer ends when the price of BTC reaches its previous peak.
The “fall” (or falling) season, is the crypto season that represents the time interval between the old high being exceeded and a new high being reached, signaling that the bull market has run its course. In this season, the fact that BTC has surpassed the previous all-time high attracts the interest of media, new investors, and companies that further pump up the price.
After the bull market has run its course, comes the crypto winter, namely the bear market, which occurs when investors decide to lock in their gains and sell Bitcoin. Basically, this period is between the new peak and the next decline. Not only that, three winters have occurred since 2011, each lasting about 13 months.
Finally, then comes the fourth season, the crypto spring, and this is the period that precedes the halving and sees the price of BTC recover from the low point of this cycle. During this period, however, crypto-investor interest is still weak.
Bitcoin (BTC) price: where are we now?
At the time of writing, BTC is worth $30,918, equal to its low of the previous post-halving 2020 cycle.
Following the reasoning of Morgan Stanley analyst Galbino, crypto spring may have arrived.
The price of BTC is up 10% in the past 7 days and nearly 16% in the past month. Looking at the yearly chart, the present price is among the highs.
And in fact, the only time BTC was above this price was in the bull run period of fall 2021 through May 2022.
Basically, BTC fell below this $30,000 threshold from May 2022 until March 2023, a year of complete crypto winter. From March 2023 to the present, however, the $30,000 threshold has always been touched but not yet crossed.
