Robert Kiyosaki has by now accustomed us to big takes on the price of Bitcoin and gold, but this time he even wanted to venture precise figures.
He is convinced that the global economy, and the U.S. economy in particular, will have problems, and that the consequences will be a strong appreciation of both gold and Bitcoin.
Summary
The prediction about the price of gold and Bitcoin
According to the famous author of “Rich Dad Poor Dad,” the price of gold could rise above $2,100 for the first time.
So far, the highest level ever reached was $2,080 an ounce in March last year and May this year.
Actually, if one were also to consider the dollar’s loss in real value over the years due to inflation, the high would be the $1,920 of September 2011, or perhaps even the $870 of January 1980, but generally these kinds of comparisons are made on the basis of nominal value.
Until July 2020 gold had never exceeded $2,000 an ounce in its entire history, and a year ago it had fallen to only just over $1,700.
As can be seen from this data, the price level of gold over the years appears to be very little volatile.
Starting in November 2022 it began an ascent that brought it first above $1,950 in February this year and then even back up to $2,080 in May.
By early October 2023 it had risen back to just above $1,800, but it has been rising strongly for a couple of good weeks now.
Last Friday it almost climbed back up to $2,000 an ounce, and at this point it appears that this milestone is just around the corner.
According to Kiyosaki this trend will continue, soon it may even be able to rise above $2,100 an ounce for the first time in history, making new all-time highs. At that point it could also take off and head toward $3,700.
Bitcoin prediction
Kiyosaki’s prediction on Bitcoin is even more optimistic.
In fact, he argues that it could start a new bullrun that could take it to new all-time highs at $135,000.
To date there have been three major bullruns, all of which occurred in the year following the halving year.
In short, there have been three halving (2012, 2016, and 2020), and in all three cases a large speculative bubble inflated the following year (2013, 2017, and 2021).
During the first bubble the price had risen to $1,100, during the second to $20,000, and during the third to $69,000.
Actually in 2021 many expected it to do a x5 from the previous highs, instead of a x3.5, but the Chinese ban made some of the capital lack in the second half of the year for it to touch $100,000.
Kiyosaki’s hypothesis therefore does not seem at all absurd, while definitely optimistic.
Should the bullrun be triggered as early as the next halving year (April 2024), or as early as the end of 2023 with a strong and powerful breakthrough of the $30,000 mark, and continue into 2025, it is not absurd to imagine a bountiful x2 from the current all-time high.
Bitcoin’s shrinking supply: the relationship with the gold price
Underlying this dynamic should be the reduction of supply in the markets.
Specifically with regard to Bitcoin, halving will halve the creation of new BTC, and since these are given as a premium to the miners who sell them to finance the large expenses of their business, supply reduction is a very likely scenario.
Add to this the fact that many Bitcoin holders seem to have already decided not to sell, because 76 percent of all existing BTCs turn out to be owned by long-term hodlers who have not moved their coins in the past 155 days.
The more BTC that are effectively immobilized, the less there will be available in the markets, and the eventual approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US will only exacerbate this dynamic.
Holders’ gains
The reason behind the decision to immobilize Bitcoins (at least for now) is that the upward trend in value is making them appreciate more and more.
For example, MicroStrategy, which as of August 2020 has purchased a total of 158,245 BTC at an average price of about $27,000, has accumulated an unrealized gain of about $60 million at this time.
Many BTC holders bought it at a lower price than it is now, either before 2021, or in the second half of 2022, or in early 2023.
In other words, only those who bought BTC from January 2021 to May 2022 are still at a net loss, if they have not sold it, while everyone else is either only at a slight loss, breaking even, or making a profit. Some of these are also in strong gains.
If the trend seems to be for further growth, it is obvious that holders may decide not to sell, at least for now.
In such a framework, Kiyosaki’s prediction really seems far from absurd, although definitely very optimistic.
