Price analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum

The current days are definitely interesting days for the price trend of Bitcoin and Ethereum: here are some analyses.

In fact, even though a lateralization has been going on for about two weeks, there are signs that indicate a possible end to that lateralization, with potentially ,much more interesting movements. 

Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) price analysis

By now, since 9 November, the price of BTC has been fluctuating around $37,000. 

The oscillation occurs within a relatively compressed range of $36,000 to $38,000, if short excursions below $36,000 are excluded.

In particular, it appears that support is set at about $35,700, but since 9 November it has been tested only twice, and only briefly. 

The only real exception was on 14 November, when for a few minutes the price even fell below $35,000. Within a few hours, however, it returned above $35,700, and thereafter it continued to swing above this support. 

In contrast, as for the upper limit, there seems to be a real wall at $38,000, which may not be easy to break through. 

The positive signs

There are, however, some encouraging signs that suggest that by dint of trying to approach $38,000 the wall may sooner or later be knocked down. 

It should be emphasized, however, that on the one hand that seems to be a decidedly difficult wall to break through at this time, and on the other hand there does not even seem to be sufficient volume to do so. 

Trading volumes currently are not low, but they are not particularly significant either. It is very difficult to imagine that the $38,000 wall can be broken without a sharp rise in trading volumes. 

However, in the US yesterday began the Thanksgiving long weekend, and often in the past during the four days when many US families gather there has been some interest in crypto markets. 

This could lead to increased trading volumes from investors and retail speculators these days. 

It may not be enough to allow BTC to break the $38,000 wall, but at least it allows this to be considered a little more likely than it was in recent days. 

Added to this is the fact that, due to fiscal issues, in the last months of good years for the price of Bitcoin this tends to make annual highs. Although in fact the 2023 high was recorded just in November, there is still time for it to record another one. 

Analysis of the Ethereum (ETH) price and its relationship to that of Bitcoin

A very similar discussion concerns the price of ETH.

In this case the wall is $2,140, but with a difference from BTC. 

In fact, if the 2023 Bitcoin highs were touched in November, for Ethereum the $2,138 touched in April holds out. At this point it really comes to mind that there is absolutely still room to make new annual highs above $2,140.

Moreover in the event that Ethereum’s price manages to break through this wall, perhaps at the same time Bitcoin could break through the one set at $38,000. 

Putting all this together, it seems plausible to imagine that this 2023’s bull run may not yet be entirely over. 

As for the lows of this period, Ethereum’s price support is placed in an area between $1,920 and $1,930. 

In this period it is easier to frame the price movements of BTC than those of ETH, which seems to do nothing but follow the trend dictated by Bitcoin. 

The early bull run hypothesis

If by the end of the month Bitcoin’s price should manage not only to break down the $38,000 wall but also to return to around the $40,000 mark, the hypothesis of a possible one-year early bullrun would remain in the running. 

In fact, to date, all three major bull runs have occurred the year after the three halvings, but the next halving will not occur until April 2024. 

So if a new big bull run is triggered in late 2023, as it happened in late 2020, it would be one year earlier than usual. 

Although this is still considered an unlikely hypothesis, at the current state of affairs it cannot be ruled out at all. 

Should it be triggered, it is possible to imagine a continuation of growth until at least mid-January, while if it does not trigger, a correction can be expected as early as the end of December.