As usual, there are various analyses and forecasts circulating regarding the possible future evolution of the price of Bitcoin.
And, as usual, they need to be divided into three main groups, namely short-term, long-term, and medium-term ones.
Summary
Analysis and medium to long-term forecasts on the price of Bitcoin
The long-term forecasts have not changed.
In fact, it was already widely expected that the bull run could have stopped even before the halving.
The event is expected to occur on April 20, and it is possible that it may be followed by a decrease in the BTC price.
The key point is that with the halving of the reward for miners, their earnings will almost halve. To make up for this shortfall, they will be forced to turn off less efficient machines, but also to sell all (or almost all) of the mined BTC.
With the price of Bitcoin going from $40,000 to $70,000 in just a few months, miners were able to reduce their sales, but after the halving they will presumably be forced for a while to return to selling the vast majority of the mined BTC, perhaps even being forced to tap into those set aside in recent months.
However, the number of new BTC created per day will decrease from 900 to 450, which is a much lower number compared to those currently being traded by ETFs.
Short-term forecasts
The issue is more complex if we refer to the short term, because in this case speculation also comes into play.
Surely the FOMO of early March has faded. In fact, at this moment the Bitcoin market seems particularly calm, despite still a lot of euphoria lingering.
The problem is precisely that such euphoria could have arisen from expectations for the halving, which could however be disappointed.
The fact is that many mistakenly think that the positive effect of the halving on the price of Bitcoin will be appreciated immediately, starting from April 20 or 21.
Instead, as highlighted above, the immediate effect of the halving on the price could be negative, although this negative impact could last only for a few weeks.
However, it would be more than enough to sweep away the excess of unjustified enthusiasm regarding the short-term impact of the halving on the price.
The hypothesis of new all-time highs: the latest analysis and forecasts on the price of Bitcoin
Regarding the price trend of Bitcoin from now until the halving, there is a hypothesis circulating that it may once again try to establish new all-time highs.
Currently it has risen back to around $70,000, after dropping to around $65,000, and this rebound could indicate a particular strength in the price of BTC at this moment.
However, there are some market dynamics, coming from traditional exchanges, that are working against it, in particular the rise of the Dollar Index above 104 points which makes it difficult for the price of Bitcoin to take off further.
In other words, it seems that there are possibilities for the price of BTC to rise again, provided that it is not hindered by those external factors that at this moment seem to be holding it back.
The key level to overcome to indicate that the strength of Bitcoin is dominating over the other bearish forces of the markets seems to be $72,000, a figure that has not been able to surpass for weeks, and around which there seems to be a wall at the moment.
It is still a price threshold very close, and in turn also close to the historical high of $73,800 recorded less than a month ago.
Gold at its highest
The price of gold is instead at historical highs, above $2,330 per ounce.
In reality, this would not be a good sign for the financial markets, because the underlying idea is that the USA are realistically risking a second flare-up of inflation.
Although the forecasts from this point of view seem to be heading towards a slight rebound for now, the inevitable consequence would be a further delay in the interest rate cut. Furthermore, the Fed has slightly intensified the withdrawal of liquidity from the markets in the last two weeks.
All this suggests that during 2024 the liquidity present in the financial markets could be destined to decrease, and within such a framework the price of Bitcoin theoretically should decrease.
So until the halving there will be a trend, but after its arrival the trend could change.
Actually, starting from the end of April, the entire trend of the financial markets could really change, also because May is often not a particularly positive month from this point of view.
It seems that the markets are preparing for this scenario by buying gold, and that is why the price of gold is at historic highs.
