After almost three months of suffering, the price of Bitcoin is finally ready to attack 68,000 euros.
In fact, today it already exceeded that level for a brief moment, but it immediately fell back below. A more solid and determined move is needed to get back above that figure and, above all, to stay there.
The fact is that since the end of January the price of Bitcoin in euros had not risen back up to €68,000, so the current move should be considered as worthy of some importance. But the future remains uncertain.
Summary
The mini-rally
The ongoing mini-rally began on April 7 with the return above 60,000 euros.
However, it must be said that that threshold (€60,000) is interesting only from a psychological point of view, because from a technical point of view the €58,000 threshold is more important.
In fact, there had already been a first mini-rally between February 25 and March 17, but it stopped below 65,000 euros.
Note that in January, while the price was falling, a key point was precisely €65,000, because once this psychological support was broken to the downside, the price in a few days fell to below €56,000.
So the March rally, failing to overcome the 65,000€ barrier, failed, and at that point the price recorded a reverse rebound, falling back below 59,000€. Fortunately, €58,000 held, and thus the second mini-rally, the one still underway, was able to begin.
The rise towards €68,000 has been characterized by significant volumes, comparable to those generated during the rebound above €58,000. Therefore, it was a real mini-rally, solid and natural, but it may have come to an end.
The end of the mini-rally
At this moment the key to understanding how the situation might evolve is precisely the 68,000 euros level.
In fact, most of the purchases of the last few months below that figure actually took place during the first mini-rally, the one in March, and especially at a price below €62,000.
The problem is that it is precisely with the surpassing of €65,000 that sales begin to appear.
Most likely these are medium-short term profit-taking by whales who accumulated in recent months just below €62,000.
For now such profit-taking is still very limited, but although for the moment it appears almost irrelevant, it does exist.
Although it is still too early to understand whether this actually constitutes the end of the recent mini-rally or not, the situation must be monitored, because between €62,000 and €68,000 the difference is almost 10%, that is, a threshold already decidedly interesting for monetizing profits in the medium-short term, especially if realized with leveraged long positions.
It should not be forgotten that, for example, closing a 10x leveraged long position after the price has risen by 10% means taking home a 100% profit.
What to monitor
It is worth reiterating once again that sales above €68,000 have still been so few that the picture cannot yet be said to be truly clear.
To understand whether such sales should continue, as hypothesized earlier, it is necessary to monitor how quickly the price will rise above €68,000.
To tell the truth, it is by no means certain that the price of Bitcoin can immediately return above this threshold, but this remains a decidedly plausible hypothesis.
In the event that it does so, but struggles to rise well above it in a relatively short time, it would mean that selling pressure has increased, suggesting heavy unloading by those who are in profit.
If instead it should manage to rise significantly and quickly above €68,000, then it would mean that selling pressure has not increased significantly, suggesting that profitable traders are waiting for further increases in order to sell.
However, today’s sales that immediately pushed the price back below €68,000 suggest that the first scenario is more plausible, at least with the information currently available. Since, in theory, it is not possible to rule out in advance that such information may also change in the coming days, the hypothesis of the end of the mini-rally still cannot be taken as certain at all.
The medium-long term
In the medium-long term, however, not only is the situation different, it is also much clearer.
In fact, below €58,000 in recent months there have been many purchases, especially below €57,000.
Indeed, below €54,500 buying pressure literally overwhelmed selling pressure, so much so that precisely thanks to this the rebound was very rapid.
It is therefore possible to put forward the hypothesis that the markets are not expecting in the medium-short term a return below that figure (€54,500). One can even hypothesize that in the event of a return below €58,000 massive purchases by holders, interested in accumulating at relatively low prices, could resume.
Although the future is always uncertain, the recent past in the specific case of Bitcoin accumulation by holders turns out to be very clear, to the point of being practically obvious.
Finally, it should be specified that it is always necessary to distinguish short-term (or medium-short term) dynamics from long-term (or medium-long term) ones, because it is actually different operators with different goals and strategies who operate on these different time horizons. Holders above €56,000 seem to have temporarily stopped, while above €60,000 speculators have returned en masse.
