Many predictions have been made about the price that bitcoin could hit during the days of the third halving, scheduled for May 2020.
The next halving of the miners’ reward should take place around May 12th, and considering that in the weeks preceding the two previous halvings, in November 2012 and July 2016, the price had always gone up, some people believe that even this time the same could happen.
For example, according to TradingView, by the end of April, the price of BTC could rise to $9,150, from about $7,500 today, and then it could also rise to $10,500.
However, this is more than just a prediction, it is a hypothesis based on the analysis of the charts.
In contrast, according to EOSio’s CTO, Daniel Larimer, the market might not push the price of bitcoin up before the halving, as it would require a significant increase in buyers. Instead, according to Larimer, some are buying before halving, but others are not, so the halving might be only partially priced in.
However, more words have been dedicated to the post-halving trend.
For example, a few days ago there was a debate on Twitter between Peter Schiff, David Schwartz of Ripple and Calvin Ayre of Bitcoin SV.
According to Schiff, the halving would be an event that is considered far too bullish, and once it happens, mass sales could actually be unleashed that could drive down BTC’s price.
David Schwartz says many will sell, but many others will buy, while for Calvin Ayre, the halving will cause a bloodbath among the miners.
According to Forbes collaborator Kyle Torpey, the halving could also cause the price to collapse, because the pressure to sell for miners is already high and will probably increase again in the coming months. However, these predictions are limited to the period just after the halving and not within 2020.
There are those who argue that the price before the halving may rise, and those who believe that it will not, while on the other hand, there are those who argue that after the halving the price will fall, but then over time it may recover.
Several analysts argue that there may be a correlation between the 2020 halving and a subsequent bull-run, but only if demand continues to be sustained.
Halving only affects supply, but without sustained demand, there may be no bull-run.
The Bitcoin halving of 2020: different scenarios
With regard to the current scenario, many analysts are predicting a bull-run after the halving at the end of the year.
For example, HODL imagines that the price of BTC could reach $100,000 by the end of the year, while trader Josh Rager dares to imagine it as high as $150,000.
Other predictions imagine less exorbitant figures, such as Digital Asset Research suggesting $60,000, or Capital.com suggesting it could go as high as $33,000.
These figures are very far apart from each other, but predictions for the end of the year often tend to express optimism, while short-term predictions alternate more or less on a par with optimism and pessimism.
Some go even further, imagining that the post-halving bull-run will actually end up stretching to 2021.
For example, Anthony Pompliano, without commenting on the figure that the price of bitcoin could reach at the time of halving, or at the end of the year, says instead that by the end of 2021 it could reach $100,000, as also suggested by the stock-to-flow model developed by PlanB.
Paradoxically, therefore, predictions seem to converge more in the medium term than in the short term, with widespread optimism perhaps also due to the quantitative easing measures adopted by central banks to deal with the economic and financial emergency caused by the Covid19 pandemic.
In other words, the volatility of the price of bitcoin seems to suggest that it is more difficult to predict short-term fluctuations rather than long-term trends.