While waiting for the SEC’s announcement, various predictions are circulating regarding the price to which Bitcoin and Ethereum might tend in the short term.
Summary
The previsioni sul prezzo di Bitcoin e Ethereum
The forecasts that are circulating all start from the assumption that today the SEC will announce the approval of the ETF su Ethereum spot.
In the case that it should instead announce a rejection, such forecasts would all turn out to be wrong and the crypto markets could react badly.
Tuttavia ad oggi sembra davvero improbabile che la SEC opti per una bocciatura, quindi non è un caso che le ipotesi si concentrino tutte sull’approvazione.
What is surprising is that very few people argue that the approval is already priced in and that after the news a simple sell-the-news might occur.
Many indeed are convinced that the current uncertainty has meant that the approval has not yet been fully priced in, also because since it went from unlikely to likely, the price of ETH has only marked a 22% increase, which has not even allowed it to approach the annual highs of two months ago.
There are three main hypotheses circulating.
Predictions on the price of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH): The three hypotheses
La prima ipotesi è che il price of ETH dopo la notizia ufficiale dell’approvazione degli ETF possa tornare sopra i 4.000$.Â
This is a crucial figure, which since the bear-market of 2022 has been surpassed for only four consecutive days in mid-March 2024.
Furthermore, the annual high of this bull run is set just below $4,100, so at this level, there appears to be a short resistance.
It should be noted that those who support this hypothesis generally also claim that after the return to the annual highs, the price of ETH could retrace again, precisely because of the sell-the-news, or rather the profit-taking that could occur precisely thanks to the return of the highs in the medium-short term.
The second hypothesis, on the other hand, is more optimistic.
It indeed predicts that the price of ETH this time could break through the 4,100$ barrier, and maybe get close to the all-time highs of 2021, which is around 4,900$.
The point is that in this 2024 Bitcoin has updated its all-time highs, while ETH has not. In fact, while at this moment BTC is only at -5% from its absolute highs, Ethereum is still at -22%.
There are those who are convinced that in the event of approval of spot ETH ETFs, its price could aspire to do something similar to what BTC did in the two months following the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETFs.
In such case for Ethereum the target would be 5,000$.
The third hypothesis is even more optimistic.
According to Bernstein, in fact, ETH could also have the possibility of pushing up to $6,600.
The probabilità di successo
Given that the three main hypotheses are distinctly different from one another, it is extremely difficult to define the probabilities of them occurring.
To tell the truth, there are many analysts who imagine a return above $4,000 in the case of approval, also because it is not yet at all certain that such approval will come.
Moreover, even if surpassing $4,000 does not happen immediately, for example in the case of a retracement due to profit-taking, the very presence of ETFs on the US stock exchanges could facilitate a rebound and thus a return above this figure.
Sebbene non sia possibile definire con precisione una percentuale di probabilità che questa ipotesi si verifichi, diversi analisti la ritengono assolutamente possibile.
As for the return to historical highs in the medium-short term, it should be noted that it does not seem that many analysts consider such a scenario as absolutely likely.
Tuttavia bisogna distinguere il trend sul medio-breve periodo con quello sul medio-lungo, ed in particolare a ciò che potrebbe accadere da settembre fino a novembre.
However, it is necessary to distinguish the trend in the short-medium term from that in the medium-long term, and in particular what could happen from September to November.
In fact, shifting the focus to November, there are many more analysts who see a possible return to the historical highs of 2021.
As for the third scenario, the most optimistic one, today few seem to predict it. However, if attention is shifted to the medium-long term, and in particular to 2025, there seems to be a bit more confidence.
It should still be remembered that the more one tries to make long-term forecasts, the more uncertainty increases, because the probabilities of significant unforeseen events also increase.
The forecast on the price of Bitcoin
A similar reasoning can also be made for Bitcoin, because it is not certain that the positive influence that ETFs had from January to March is already over.
Anzi, un eventuale successo degli ETF su Ethereum potrebbe in qualche modo ripercuotersi positivamente anche su quelli su BTC.
At this moment, in the short term, it seems difficult for the price of Bitcoin to have the strength to climb back above $72,000, because at that price there is a real wall to break through.
It is worth noting, however, that in case of a breakdown it seems that the subsequent walls are placed at $73,000 and $75,000, but if it breaks through the one at $72,000 it could also break through the subsequent one at $73,000 in the momentum.
So the hypothesis circulating is not only that it could also manage to return to the historical highs, but that it could also push a little further.
Much, however, will depend on the potential push on the crypto markets of Ethereum between today and tomorrow, also because there is even the possibility that if ETH were to perform very well, it could end up draining capital from the Bitcoin market in the short term.
However, the forecasts for June and the end of the year remain generally optimistic, with several analysts suggesting that in this bull run the price of Bitcoin could even have the strength to rise above the fateful $100,000.
These, however, are medium-term forecasts, and therefore with a lower degree of confidence due to potential unforeseen events.
