When Donald Trump posts a political statement, traders across Dubai and Abu Dhabi don’t wait for confirmation before acting. According to Capital.com, the recent UAE trading surge tied to these announcements has grown large enough that it now outpaces the market reaction to Federal Reserve decisions and major U.S. economic data releases, according to the platform’s Middle East leadership.
Summary
Key takeaways
- Capital.com says Trump’s political announcements trigger near-instant price swings and a measurable jump in UAE retail trading activity.
- Volume increases tied to Trump statements outpace reactions to Federal Reserve decisions and major U.S. economic data.
- Capital.com posted record MENA trading volumes in Q1 2025, driven by local retail demand and global market volatility.
- Capital Vault, an affiliate of Capital.com, secured a UAE license to offer spot virtual asset dealing and custody services.
- Separately, Oman and Iran have floated a temporary shipping corridor and mine-clearance plan for the Strait of Hormuz, with prediction markets pricing rising odds of a formal deal.
Political announcements spur a surge in UAE retail trading
Trump’s social media posts and policy announcements have become one of the fastest-moving triggers in the region’s retail trading world, according to Capital.com’s Middle East CEO, Tarik Chebib. Speaking to Fortune, Chebib described a pattern that’s become familiar to the platform’s trading desks: a political headline drops, and within moments, order books start moving.
Trump’s announcements trigger near-instant price swings
“We see the price fluctuation immediately, and that will lead to trades,” Chebib said. “We see that there’s more activity around those kinds of announcements.” Chebib has run Capital.com’s MENA operations since 2022 and previously served as Head of Middle East at Pepperstone, another major retail brokerage — a background that gives him a front-row seat to just how competitive, and reactive, the region’s trading landscape has become.
Trading volume surpasses responses to Fed decisions and US economic data
What stands out in Capital.com’s internal data isn’t just that traders react to Trump — it’s how strongly they react compared with traditional market catalysts. The trading volume increases linked to his statements have outpaced the activity typically generated by Federal Reserve rate decisions and headline U.S. economic releases, the kind of events that normally dominate short-term trading strategy. Political news, in other words, is no longer background noise for UAE retail traders. It functions as a direct trade trigger, sitting placed alongside comparable events like earnings announcements or meetings held by central banks, though far less warning attached.
That shift matters because it changes how quickly retail money moves in response to headlines that have nothing to do with corporate fundamentals or monetary policy. For a platform like Capital.com, it also means volatility itself has become a recurring, almost predictable source of trading activity.
Capital.com records historic trading volumes and expands crypto services in MENA
Capital.com’s own numbers back up the trend. The broker reported record trading volumes across the MENA region in the first quarter of 2025, a milestone the company attributes to two overlapping forces: rising local appetite for retail trading and a broader wave of global market volatility that has kept traders active across asset classes.
Record Q1 2025 trading volumes reflect rising local retail appetite and global volatility
The record volumes suggest the region’s retail trading base isn’t just growing steadily — it’s becoming more responsive to global events in real time. That combination of local demand and international volatility is precisely the environment where political headlines, including Trump’s, tend to generate outsized trading reactions.
Capital Vault obtains UAE license for spot virtual asset services
Alongside the trading surge, Capital.com has been building out its crypto footprint in the region. Capital Vault, an affiliate of Capital.com, obtained a UAE regulatory license to offer spot virtual asset services, according to the company. Per reporting from Cointelegraph, the license was granted by the UAE’s Capital Market Authority and allows Capital Vault to deal in virtual assets as an agent or matching principal, while also providing custody on behalf of clients.
That’s a meaningful distinction from Capital.com’s existing contracts-for-difference products, which give traders price exposure to crypto without actual ownership of the underlying asset. Once the spot service goes live, UAE clients will reportedly be able to buy and hold real crypto through the Capital.com app, with Capital Vault handling execution, custody and settlement. Capital Vault operates as a separately regulated entity, with its own governance and risk arrangements kept apart from Capital.com’s other business lines, and has opened an office in Abu Dhabi to build out a local virtual-asset team, Cointelegraph reported.
The approval follows the Capital Market Authority’s introduction of a broader virtual-asset regulatory framework in April, which expanded the number of regulated crypto activities in the UAE from three to eight and introduced new standards covering business conduct, alternative trading systems, anti-money laundering controls and prudential requirements, according to Cointelegraph.
Why this matters: combining traditional CFD trading with regulated spot crypto access under one roof positions Capital.com to capture both sides of a volatile trading environment — the fast political reaction trades and the longer-term crypto exposure — at a moment when regional demand for both appears to be climbing simultaneously.
Oman and Iran propose temporary shipping route in the Strait of Hormuz
Away from the trading floor, a separate but geopolitically consequential development is unfolding in one of the world’s most sensitive maritime corridors. Oman and Iran have proposed establishing a temporary shipping route along with a plan for mine clearance in the Strait of Hormuz, according to a statement from Oman’s foreign ministry.
Proposal aims to improve regional stability and reduce navigational risks
The proposal comes amid lingering tensions in the strait following the recent Iran-U.S. conflict, which left the waterway partially restricted due to mines and ongoing security concerns. The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most strategically important chokepoints for global energy shipments, and any credible move toward reopening it more safely carries weight well beyond the region. The initiative reflects an effort to stabilize the area and restore safer commercial transit through a corridor that has been a persistent flashpoint for maritime security.
Market pricing signals increased probability of a formal agreement
Prediction markets are already pricing in the odds of a finalized deal. Market pricing for an Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement by August 31 rose to a 34.5% probability, up sharply from 16% the previous day, while the September 30 sub-market showed an even higher probability of 57%. That gap suggests traders view a longer resolution timeline as more likely than a quick formal sign-off.
Whether that probability turns into an actual signed agreement will depend on formal statements from both governments and how regional and global actors, including the United States and other Gulf states, respond to the proposal. Any confirmed joint announcement or signed arrangement would carry real weight for shipping routes, energy markets and the broader security picture around one of the world’s busiest oil transit corridors.
FAQ
What caused the surge in retail trading activity in the UAE?
The surge was triggered by political announcements from Donald Trump, which led to near-instant price fluctuations and increased trades across Capital.com’s platform.
How does trading volume from Trump announcements compare to other market events?
Trading volume increases after Trump’s announcements outpace those following Federal Reserve decisions and major U.S. economic data releases, according to Capital.com.
What is the significance of the shipping route proposal by Oman and Iran?
The proposal aims to create a temporary shipping corridor and clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz to reduce navigation risks and enhance regional stability.
What regulatory milestone did Capital Vault achieve in the UAE?
Capital Vault obtained a regulatory license from the UAE’s Capital Market Authority to offer spot virtual asset services, enabling crypto dealing and custody alongside Capital.com’s existing trading products.
Article produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by the editorial team.
