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The volatility of cryptocurrencies decreases

After last week’s volatility spikes, cryptocurrencies rose to levels not seen since mid-November, with the 30-day Bitcoin volatility index hitting 3.4% last week. Over the past three days, movements remain congested in a narrow band, highlighting a reflective market. 

Source: COIN360.com

Today sees a perfect balance between positive and negative signs. Bitcoin oscillates perfectly around parity in the $8,600-8,650 area. Ethereum is just below parity with a loss close to 1%, while Ripple scores a -0.5%.

Among the top 15 cryptocurrencies per market cap, positive signs include Litecoin (LTC) with a +0.6%, and Ethereum Classic (ETC), which is the best of the top 20 with a gain of 2%. ETC tries to regain the $9.5, a level that with the break of January 16th triggered an explosive movement that pushed prices to $12, levels not recorded since September 2018. Ethereum Classic is among the biggest rises since the beginning of the year with a gain of 35%.

By contrast, among the downward movements, there is Dash that loses more than 3%, a decline that does not affect what happened in recent days. From the lows of January 10th, with the movement that reached the top of the semester on January 15th, Dash has in fact gained 230%. That’s why today’s decline, which cancels some of the increases accumulated yesterday, is more of a retracement where Dash’s prices try to consolidate the previous movement over the $100. 

Other declines include ZCash (ZEC) losing 2.4% as well as Monero (XMR) down 1.7%. These three privacy coins have anticipated what has been the rally of the past few days, as they were rocketing with decisive bullish movements already in the early days of 2020. 

The day is therefore colourless as the consolidation movement proceeds. Volumes are dropping to around $75 billion, half of the volumes traded during last week’s bullish movements. The market cap remains at $240 billion with Bitcoin dominance falling slightly back a fraction of a decimal place to 65.7%. Ethereum’s dominance also remains unchanged at 7.6%, levels achieved yesterday, as does XRP at 4.2%.

BTC 20200122
Bitcoin chart by Tradingview

Bitcoin (BTC): low volatility today

Bitcoin remains caged between $8,500 and $8,800, a range that has been characterizing prices for three days. It is necessary for Bitcoin to stay above $8,300. A downward trend change movement must not go below $8,000 or it would affect the bullish trend that has been going on since the beginning of the year. 

A break of $9,200 would give a bullish signal with the next short target at $9,500-9,700.

ETH 20200122
Ethereum chart by Tradingview

Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum tries to form a consolidation base from which to move above $160. Ethereum is currently trading between $160 and $170 as well, a range that has narrowed in these hours between $165 and $170. 

It is necessary not to go down to $145 in the next few days while a price break above last Saturday’s levels at $178 would aim at $190 before aspiring to the next psychological resistance level at $200, abandoned last September.


Federico Izzi
Federico Izzi
Financial analyst and independent #trader – S.I.A.T. & Assob.it partner. He operates actively on stock and derivatives markets (futures and options) since 1997. A precursor of cyclic-volumetric analysis he is known for having identified the most important upward and downward movements in the financial markets of recent years. He participates annually as a speaker at the ITForum in Rimini since the 2010 edition and InvestingRoma and Napoli since the first edition of 2015. He is a guest and market expert on the "Trading Room" and "Market Driver" broadcasts of Class CNBC, Borsa Diretta.tv and on the evening news of Traderlink. Since July 2017 he is a permanent guest on LeFonti.TV, the only weekly national space dedicated to cryptocurrencies alongside the most important international experts in the field. He was interviewed as a cryptocurrency expert for Forbes Italia, Panorama, StartupItalia and DonnaModerna. He was recognized as the first Italian technical analyst to have published the first secular cyclic analysis on Bitcoin. Periodically publishes articles on ITForum News, Sole24Ore, MILANOFINANZA, TrendOnLine and Wall Street Italy. Federico Izzi is... "Zio Romolo".