BTC at $9,400: why Bitcoin is going up
BTC at $9,400: why Bitcoin is going up
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BTC at $9,400: why Bitcoin is going up

By Federico Izzi - 30 Apr 2020

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The FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) seems to have been triggered on Bitcoin. There are several reasons why Bitcoin is going up, just a few days before the halving. 

Today opened with an explosion of rises already started yesterday that highlighted double-digit movements. 

During the night Asia has further pushed the rises by boosting one of the most intense movements both on a daily basis and on a weekly basis. 

coin360 20200430
Source: COIN360.com

Bitcoin drags as always the rest of the industry with a movement that in the last few hours has led to touch the $9,400 threshold, levels that Bitcoin had left since February 25th. During the night the rise has pushed up to +20% in 24 hours, an intensity that had not been recorded since last October, in the days when China seemed to give merit to blockchain technology. In that case, in less than 36 hours, Bitcoin increased by almost 50%. On a weekly basis, Bitcoin is rising by more than 25% from last Thursday’s levels, one of the top 10 performances among the top 100 on a weekly basis. Only Cardano is doing better on a weekly basis.

BTC 20200430
Bitcoin chart by Tradingview

Why Bitcoin is going up

The signals that were already coming in the last few days, low volatility and a decrease in volumes not coinciding with a fall in prices and institutional futures markets such as the CME and Bakkt, which were showing rising volumes in spite of the small price movements, warned that there could then be a directional movement, which is taking place. 

A movement that yesterday alone saw a rise of more than 1,000 dollars, pushing itself above important psychological and technical thresholds such as the psychological one of 8,000 dollars and the technical one of 8,500. Another bullish impulse was also given by those who had short positions, and the race for the loss-making closures unleashed a further extension during the night that went close to $9,500. Since last night’s closing, Bitcoin has achieved a closing of $800 in a few hours.

Clues were already in place that could have warned that a strong movement was on the way. One is the stablecoins that have increased their capitalization in the last month and a half. This increase in capitalization has not only affected the main one which is Tether and which occupies 85% of the industry but also USDC, Coinbase’s stablecoin, both have seen an increase in market cap. 

On a weekly basis, a rise this fast, which has increased by over 20% from Monday, has not been recorded since June 2019. However, the week is not yet over and in three days anything can happen.

What happened yesterday has also caused trading volumes to explode, which in the last 24 hours have risen more than 190 billion dollars in total on a daily basis with an increase of more than 45% from yesterday’s values. 

When contextualizing on Bitcoin alone, BTC yesterday traded over $3.4 billion in a single day. This is the second-largest trading volume record since the beginning of the year. The day with the highest trading volume was March 13th. This is the third record since the beginning of the year, the highest trading volumes in fact were recorded only on March 12th and 13th, but that was a downward movement, while this is an upward phase, which means that if we want to find a similar condition, with high volumes accompanying the rises we need to go back to the end of June when there was a weekly candle closing with a rise of over 20%. 

On June 26th, 2019 Bitcoin traded for over $5.5 billion. But on those two days, June 26th and 27th, Bitcoin traded over $10 billion and that rise coincided with the tops of the recent past. In fact, the Bitcoin highs of the last two years were marked exactly on June 26th at $13,764. It was during those 48 hours that the highest trade in the last year was recorded. 

Compared to what happened yesterday, which is dragging on today with high volumes, it will be necessary to understand in the coming days if we are in a similar phase, where there are tops that are accompanied by a trend that shows how Bitcoin is attracting more and more people. Looking at Google Trends searches, the bitcoin halving is setting new records every day. This movement needs to be followed very carefully, close to the halving this could be the reason for the high jump that is triggering the latest shortlists’ cover-ups, as well as price manipulation to attract small retail investors.

ETH 20200430
Ethereum chart by Tradingview

The rise of Ethereum and Ripple

This strong rise in the last few hours has also dragged the rest of the sector, pushing Ethereum to the levels of the first bearish candle of March 8th that had opened the bearish fires that then developed in the following days. During the night ETH recovered the $226, cancelling almost all the bearish movement that started last March. On an operational basis, Ethereum has gone beyond the neckline of the bullish channel.

XRP 20200430
XRP chart by Tradingview

Ripple also pushed further and returned above March 8th levels, with a lunge that in the last few hours has seen prices go over $0.23, a higher level not recorded since March 8th.

Total capitalization flies over $255 billion, a higher level that the market has not seen since March 8th. 

This strong bullish movement also increases the dominance of Bitcoin, which gains 1.5% and goes up to 65.6%, consequently affecting that of Ethereum which drops to 9.5% despite the sharp rise in price.  Ripple falls to 3.9%, the lowest level of the last month and reached at the end of March. 

Dominance reports reveal that the current rise is driven by Bitcoin.

 

Federico Izzi

Financial analyst and independent #trader – S.I.A.T. & Assob.it partner. He operates actively on stock and derivatives markets (futures and options) since 1997. A precursor of cyclic-volumetric analysis he is known for having identified the most important upward and downward movements in the financial markets of recent years. He participates annually as a speaker at the ITForum in Rimini since the 2010 edition and InvestingRoma and Napoli since the first edition of 2015. He is a guest and market expert on the "Trading Room" and "Market Driver" broadcasts of Class CNBC, Borsa Diretta.tv and on the evening news of Traderlink. Since July 2017 he is a permanent guest on LeFonti.TV, the only weekly national space dedicated to cryptocurrencies alongside the most important international experts in the field. He was interviewed as a cryptocurrency expert for Forbes Italia, Panorama, StartupItalia and DonnaModerna. He was recognized as the first Italian technical analyst to have published the first secular cyclic analysis on Bitcoin. Periodically publishes articles on ITForum News, Sole24Ore, MILANOFINANZA, TrendOnLine and Wall Street Italy. Federico Izzi is... "Zio Romolo".

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